tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post1651567478869160613..comments2015-05-05T23:12:03.084-04:00Comments on Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Discounted Team Championshipsphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-86522924583162654082007-06-08T11:28:00.000-04:002007-06-08T11:28:00.000-04:00A variation on this is exponential smoothing, whic...A variation on this is exponential smoothing, which you could apply to winning percentage as well. Your current state equals x (x a number between 0 and 1, reflecting the discount rate) times your current period's value (could be championships, fractional championships (e.g., 1 for WS title, .5 for WS loss, .25 for playoffs), winning percentage) plus (1-x) times last month's state. March forward in time and keep track.<BR/><BR/>An advantage of this is that it always gives you a value between 0 and 1 that means exactly what your measure is. Instead of the Cubs having "1378 discounted wins", they would have a .469 discounted winning percentage.<BR/><BR/>This method is used for performance measures tracked by inspectors employed by the government to track aviation safety.parinellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03802604259779936852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-13662470854602427202007-06-05T15:19:00.000-04:002007-06-05T15:19:00.000-04:00This is very interesting. Here's something to con...This is very interesting. Here's something to consider to try to make this a bit more complicated and "accurate".<BR/><BR/>Presuming that a fan can only appreciate a World Series once he's 12 years old, then any World Series won by a team prior to today would count as 0 for those fans. All 13 year olds will only appreciate a World Series won in the last year, etc, etc. <BR/><BR/>Secondly, your discount rate can apply (be it 3% or 10% or whatever). That part doesn't change.<BR/><BR/>Then, you simply multiply the frequency of each group by the discounted championships that you figured for that age group, and all them all up for each age group.<BR/><BR/>This will give you the average discounted championship for the average living fan.Tangotigerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11864323151591103655noreply@blogger.com