tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post3925193569280790472..comments2015-02-03T19:01:27.677-05:00Comments on Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Run Estimation Stuff, pt. 6phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-5816782578634585322008-12-08T09:18:00.000-05:002008-12-08T09:18:00.000-05:00As David Smyth defined it, PAR is the PA-ratio--th...As David Smyth defined it, PAR is the PA-ratio--the ratio of new team PA with our batter compared to old team PA.<BR/><BR/>R+/PA incorporates added PA by adding them in as additional runs created. If the batter generated 10 extra PA, for instance, he would get credit for 10*Lg(R/PA) additional runs, which are added to his RC.<BR/><BR/>For LW, the "+" adjustment should be enough. PAR was designed to be the parallel to the "+" adjustment for theoretical teams, since you don't just assume that the additional PA add a fixed run value; they add a dynamic run value based (which of course BsR gives you). <BR/><BR/>So you answered your own question correctly, I think. Use the "+" with a linear weights RC formula, use nothing with a linear weights above average formula, and use PAR with a TT formula.phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-36959270160504970502008-12-07T18:47:00.000-05:002008-12-07T18:47:00.000-05:00Is PAR R+/O+?I believe that I have been confusing ...Is PAR R+/O+?<BR/><BR/>I believe that I have been confusing PAR with R+/PA. I have been using PAR, thinking that it was R+/PA. <BR/><BR/>Is it OK to apply PAR to an ERP style linear weights formula. Or, is PAR only meant to be applied to Theoretical team run-estimators.terpsfan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-36399512101970550802008-11-21T17:32:00.000-05:002008-11-21T17:32:00.000-05:00Of course, linear methods take into account the ef...Of course, linear methods take into account the effect a hitter has on the League LW values. I'm not quite sure what I was asking you in my last question.terpsfan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-68099276673237144512008-11-21T09:55:00.000-05:002008-11-21T09:55:00.000-05:00The player's weights will reflect the difference b...The player's weights will reflect the difference between the league with him and the league without him...however, the effect will be lesser as you are diluting the player's influence by putting him in a context of 14 teams instead of just 1.<BR/><BR/>If you removed the player's stats, then figured the LW for the league, they would obviously change a little bit too.phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-80611499722672943522008-11-21T00:12:00.000-05:002008-11-21T00:12:00.000-05:00Patriot,You have stated that Theoretical Team meth...Patriot,<BR/><BR/>You have stated that Theoretical Team methods take into account the effect that a hitter has on the team LW values. If you use a league average theoretical team, or the league differential approach, does the individual effect the league LW values?terpsfan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-90257643659819839252008-11-18T21:47:00.000-05:002008-11-18T21:47:00.000-05:00The only way I'm going to understand the differenc...The only way I'm going to understand the differences between the different theoretical team methods is to start experimenting with them. Maybe then, I could follow everything that is going-on with your Theoretical Team spreadsheet.terpsfan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-14517324256021854582008-11-18T09:26:00.000-05:002008-11-18T09:26:00.000-05:00No, because that one redefines the rest of the tea...No, because that one redefines the rest of the team as having 8*PA, rather than the actual value. If, in place of "a*PA", "b*PA", etc. you used the actual rest of team, then it is the same thing.<BR/><BR/>So that equation is the same as the differential in principle, but not in practice.phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-57745146803368936352008-11-18T06:55:00.000-05:002008-11-18T06:55:00.000-05:00Patriot,Does this TT equation you posted on Tango'...Patriot,<BR/><BR/>Does this TT equation you posted on Tango's blog yield the same results as the differential method:<BR/><BR/>TT BsR = (A + a*PA)(B + b*PA)/(B + C + (b+c)*PA) + D - (a*b/(b+c))*PAterpsfan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-1374220459647156922008-11-16T16:29:00.000-05:002008-11-16T16:29:00.000-05:00I was just curious how you would incorporate PAR i...I was just curious how you would incorporate PAR into the differential method. Don't put a lot of effort into thinking about how to do this. Your default answer sounds like the easiest thing to do. <BR/><BR/>I viewed the HTML of your blog, and was able to expand the margins. Thanks!terpsan101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-27273495037387892272008-11-16T09:44:00.000-05:002008-11-16T09:44:00.000-05:00PAR is certainly a little tricky to apply differen...PAR is certainly a little tricky to apply differentially, and doesn't fit nicely into the actual league figures. I have never actually sat down and figured out exactly how I would go about adjusting for it, since I never actually use the differential method. I'll think about it and see if I can come up with a good answer, as opposed to my default answer which would be to multiply the player's differential BsR by PAR.<BR/><BR/>You can change the margins by clicking on "Customize" at the top of your blog (if you are logged in). You can edit the template and fiddle with it. I am by no means a HTML expert, but I did some trial and error and got this. If you want, I can post/email the settings that I used.phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-26011477035560093512008-11-16T02:29:00.000-05:002008-11-16T02:29:00.000-05:00Patriot,How do you incorporate the PAR adjustment ...Patriot,<BR/><BR/>How do you incorporate the PAR adjustment into Baseruns when you figure the Baseruns estimates for the league with the player included, then figure the Baseruns estimate without the player, and take the difference between the two? On your website, you incorporated PAR into a Theoretical Team. I was wondering if you knew how to do this using the method of subtracting the player's batting line from the league batting line.<BR/><BR/>How did you get the margins wider on your blog?terpsfan101noreply@blogger.com