tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post3945777885789487222..comments2024-02-13T06:56:14.486-05:00Comments on Walk Like a Sabermetrician: IBA Ballot: Cy Youngphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-86240541434656601412012-11-08T18:27:18.895-05:002012-11-08T18:27:18.895-05:00No, my RAR is based on actual runs allowed with ad...No, my RAR is based on actual runs allowed with adjustment for bullpen support. <br /><br />You seem more likely than me to throw out homers and/or consider the effect of a park on particular events (I only consider runs-based park factors). That probably explains our differences re: Lee and Scherzer. Scherzer's K and W rates were great, but he gave up a HR in 3% of PAs which was right at the league average. From a pure DIPS perspective, he's almost dead even with Sale, as they each have a 3.58 dRA and a difference of just 12 plate appearances.phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-89651934872694037722012-11-08T08:10:14.324-05:002012-11-08T08:10:14.324-05:00Are you using a FIP-based RAR model? If so, you c...Are you using a FIP-based RAR model? If so, you could be underestimating Dickey, since we know that knuckleballers create low BABIPs. But regardless, I felt similarly about the pitchers: they were a close group this year, and it was really tough to separate a leader from the pack. So here were my ballots:<br /><br />AL CY:<br />Verlander<br />Price<br />Hernandez<br />Scherzer<br />Sale<br /><br />NL CY:<br />Dickey<br />Lee<br />Kershaw<br />Strasburg<br />Kimbrel<br /><br />I did a lot of mixed-method sort of stuff, with no clear method as to how to combine it. Probably the most important measure I used, though, was (K-BB)/IP. So I was VERY tempted to put Cliff Lee first on my ballot in the NL. The guy had OUTSTANDING peripherals. He struck out 207 while walking only 28, and while 26 HR allowed is a lot, it's okay in light of the strikeouts, walks, and fact that he pitched his home games in Philly. And that's also why Scherzer ends up so high on my ballot, but left off yours completely. And I gave Kimbrel a 5th-place vote, just because I still am not sure how to judge relievers who pitch such limited numbers of innings through no fault of their own, against starters. And Kimbrel's rate stats were good enough for him to earn a vote in my book.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15304178130464809737noreply@blogger.com