tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post8920240073082771128..comments2016-10-21T17:00:54.918-04:00Comments on Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Once in a Lifetimephttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-38243245321024639982011-06-29T20:02:43.791-04:002011-06-29T20:02:43.791-04:00The assumption I'm making is that championship...The assumption I'm making is that championships are independent, so that each team still has a 1/30 chance. <br /><br />Having a 1/30 chance to win does not mean that you have a 50/50 chance of winning within 30 years--it means that you're expected championships are equal to 1 over the next 30 years. The probability of winning >=1 title in the next 30 years is 1-(29/30)^30 = 63.8%. That of course does not include the mortality component.phttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18057215403741682609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12133335.post-87336895552901872822011-06-29T08:22:10.022-04:002011-06-29T08:22:10.022-04:00Ok, since 1980, all these teams have won it all--
...Ok, since 1980, all these teams have won it all--<br /><br />Phillies (2)<br />Dodgers (2)<br />Cardinals (2)<br />Orioles<br />Tigers<br />Royals<br />Mets<br />Twins (2)<br />A's<br />Reds<br />Blue Jays (2)<br />Braves<br />Yankees (5)<br />Marlins (2)<br />Diamondbacks<br />Angels<br />Red Sox (2)<br />White Sox<br />Giants<br /><br />...that's 19 teams (covering 31 years).<br /><br />Do the other 11 teams still have a 50/50 chance of winning it all during the next 28 years? Or does the math alter, as the time limit squeezes shut?<br /><br />The other 11...<br /><br />Astros<br />Brewers<br />Cubs<br />Indians<br />Mariners<br />Nationals<br />Padres<br />Pirates<br />Rangers<br />Rays<br />RockiesDevonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00759670633957499411noreply@blogger.com