Great Moments in Yahoo! Standings

As of midnight on June 9, this is how Yahoo! renders the NL wildcard standings:



WAS and ATL at 32-29 are somehow half a game ahead of 33-30 MIA, although if you were to look at the NL East standings on Yahoo!, they are all listed as tied (yes, I realize that W% is what really defines standings, not GB, but there is no dispute that by the rules of GB, those teams are tied).

It gets even more ridiculous, though, when you see that 33-31 LA and STL are tied with MIA. Obviously, they are .5 game behind MIA.

OPS at the Park

Saturday night I was at the Reds game against the Cardinals. On the big scoreboard they displayed BA/OPS/HR/RBI and on the ribbon boards they displayed BA/HR/RBI/OBA/SLG/R (I didn’t write this down, so I might be off a little on the categories, but I think the preceding is a pretty fair representation). In any event, there was a group of four people sitting in the row in front of me. It appeared to be a father, two adult daughters, and one of the daughter’s boyfriend/husband.

Late in the game, the gentleman asked the group what “OPS” was. The boyfriend said something to the effect of "It’s a stat that’s supposed to tell you how good of a hitter a player is", but didn't seem to know any details. This being 2014, he got out his phone and looked it up. It appeared that this took him to the Wikipedia page, which after explaining that OPS is the sum of OBA and SLG , says it can also be computed in one equation as follows:

OPS = (AB*(H + W + HB) + TB*(AB + W + HB + SF))/(AB*(AB + W + HB + SF))

He proceeded to show this to the rest of the group, and the reaction appeared to be "wow, that’s really complicated". It wasn’t "that stat must be bunk because it’s complicated", but seemed to be more of a “I’m not interested in learning more about this because it’s too complicated”.

In observing this I started thinking about what I might have said was I somehow involved in this conversation. Would I have thrown OPS (a metric about which I have written negative things about more times than I can count) under the bus by agreeing that it was too complicated, all the while concealing the fact that my preferred metrics might appear to be even more complicated to a layperson? Would I have said that the equation above was more complex than it needed to be, because it could be written as the equivalent and decomposed (H + W + HB)/(AB + W + HB + SF) + TB/AB--hand-waiving away the fact that the more complex version provides insight into how events are actually weighted by OPS? Would I, not wishing to contribute to any anti-sabermetric sentiment but also with no desire to teach a saber 101 course, have offered a lame defense of OPS?

Of course, I wasn’t involved in this conversation, and certainly wasn’t going to insert myself into it, so this was all hypothetical. But I think the thought exercise is worthwhile to consider for those who do have an interest in what I’ll call for lack of a better term sabermetric evangelization. I am not one of them, but if you are interested in getting more casual fans interested in sabermetrics, you should consider whether you could explain the metrics that you are advocating if asked to do so. I would draw a distinction between a metric that is complex in order to achieve precision or theoretical considerations, and one that has properties that defy explanation. If you think you could explain why total bases are weighted by plate appearances and times on base are weighted by at bats, then by all means, go ahead and point people to the Wikipedia page for OPS. Good luck.

1882 NL

1882 would be a very eventful year for baseball, but that was belied by the NL’s lack of pre-season franchise changes; this was be the first season in which all league members returned. For the first time, the NL had a serious rival operating in a similar fashion to itself, the American Association. Also significantly, William Hulbert died on April 10, leaving the league without its founder and president. Arthur Soden of Boston was his successor.

There were no significant rule changes. Players were required to account for their own bats and uniforms when they were on the road, and were also obligated to purchase at least two uniform sets. In one of the final actions of Hulbert’s tenure, reacting in response to a supposed AA plan, the league adopted a uniform color-coding scheme in which each position would wear a different color uniform (there is some disagreement in the secondary sources about this, and I’d like to believe that’s because it never really happened). Pitchers wore baby blue, catchers scarlet, first baseman scarlet and white, second baseman orange and black, third baseman blue and white, shortstops maroon, left fielders white, center fielders red and black, and right fielders gray. The ridiculousness of this should be obvious, and it was quickly quashed if it ever had existed at all (there are varying reports in the secondary sources about whether players actually took the field dressed like clowns or not).

Arthur Irwin, the Providence shortstop, is said to have been the first to use a padded glove, and his teammate Paul Hines has been cited as the first player to wear sunglasses. As with other such firsts, these are potentially dubious in their accuracy. Cap Anson was called out during a May 5 game for walking back to the base after a foul ball instead of running; this minor rule was done away with after the season. On May 25, Curry Foley of Buffalo became the first major leaguer to hit for the cycle in a 20-1 rout of Cleveland. On August 17, Providence defeated Detroit 1-0 in eighteen innings on Hoss Radbourn’s home run; it would be the longest major league shutout until 1967. Chicago’s brilliant Larry Corcoran no-hit Boston 5-0 on September 20 to become the first author of multiple no-nos.

Umpire Dick Higham, employed by Detroit (umpires in this time were employed by teams and went on road trips with them) purportedly wrote a gambler a letter telling him how to bet on a May 30 Wolverine game against Providence. He was subsequently dropped by Detroit and umpired for Troy on June 20-22, but then was called to a hearing on June 24 in Detroit. Higham claimed that he was innocent, but nonetheless was removed. He is the only umpire ever explicitly expelled for dishonesty.

The pennant race turned into a two team affair. Two-time defending champ Chicago put up some impressive performances (exemplified by a 35-4 thumping of Cleveland in late July), but Providence had the lead by three games with sixteen to play. The White Stockings went on a 15-1 tear to take the pennant by three games.

However, controversy abounded. The final three scheduled White Stocking games at Buffalo were moved to Chicago for financial reasons. This was objected to by Providence, and the Grays wanted a special series after the regular season to determine the pennant. Chicago assented, although it is unclear whether this was ever actually regarded as championship series.

By the time it ended, there were no such questions. Chicago played the first three games of the nine game series with players out of position (and Abner Dalrymple and Joe Quest on the bench) and fell behind 3-0. They wound up winning the series 5-4 with a 19-7 win in the ninth game, played at Fort Wayne long after general interest had been exhausted.

Entering the offseason, the National League would be looking for two new members and dealing with the realization that they finally had a rival worthy of their respect.

STANDINGS



Chicago was even better in EW% than their actual record, but game scores like 35-4 will do that for you. The standings wound up playing out in the exact order of EW%, except for the third place tie between Boston and Buffalo. It was also another fairly balanced year for the league as only Worcester was dreadful and no one ran away and hid.

In 1882, the league hit .251/.271/.342 for a .130 SEC, 5.41 runs and 24.33 outs per game.

CHICAGO



The White Stockings returned the entire regular lineup from their 1881 pennant winner, although there were minor shuffles in the lineup; second baseman Joe Quest was benched, Tom Burns slid from short to second, King Kelly came in from right to play short, and Hugh Nicol came off the bench to take over right. However, for the late season pennant push, Anson reinstalled Quest and benched Nicol. Neither man hit much; Quest was pretty much at replacement level in his 167 PA.

Al Spalding decided that he wanted an anonymous official scorer who would therefore be free from the various pressures inherent to the job. He hired a woman named Elisa Green Williams, who did the job in secret for many years.

According to an anecdote in Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract, the term “Charley horse” originated when the Chicago players attended a racetrack one day and witnessed a horse named Charley break down. The next day, when George Gore pulled up lame on a stolen base attempt, two and two came together. Do I buy it? No, but anecdotes that combine horse racing and baseball are hard to come by.

PROVIDENCE



The Grays also displayed a great deal of lineup stability; considering that Chicago and Providence had run 1-2 in the previous two seasons, it seemed to be wise policy. The only changes were Harry Wright as the new manager after his long stint in Boston, and his brother George coming out of retirement for his swan song at age 35. Wright was only a shadow of his former self, with a pitiful 35 ARG.

In an attempt to stimulate attendance, the Grays and their opponents paraded through the streets of the city before games.

BOSTON



The Reds replaced departed manager Harry Wright with longtime infielder John Morrill. There were no wholesale shits on the infield, only rookie Sam Wise (4 PA for Detroit in 1881) replacing Ross Barnes at shortstop (how that came about is a story for the AA section). Perhaps Morrill’s own experience of being yanked around the infield (he had played every position on a regular basis for at least one season except short) influenced him to keep the infield intact.

Pat Deasley, a reserve in 1881, became the full-time catcher as Pop Smith moved to Cincinnati of the AA. Pete Hotaling of Worcester took over center field, rookie Ed Rowen inherited right field, and Bobby Mathews was brought in as Grasshopper Jim’s #2 after pitching for the Grays in 1881. Whitney, always a fine hitter, paced the team in BA, OBA, SLG, RG, and WAA. His 61 runs created were only four off the team lead of Morrill and Joe Hornung, who made 70 and 90 more outs respectively.

BUFFALO



The Bisons shuffled their lineup a bit, moving players back to their more natural positions. Jim O’Rourke went from third to center, Deacon White from left to third, and Hardy Richardson from center to second. Blondie Purcell took the full-time job in left field after amassing 205 PA in 1881 between Buffalo and Cleveland. He would be fined $10 for cutting a wet ball in an attempt to make the umpire put a new one into play. Pud Galvin complained that he could not throw his curve properly with a wet ball.

Rookie #2 pitcher Hugh Daily was called One Arm because, well, he had one arm.

CLEVELAND



The Blues had two rookies (catcher Fatty Briody (4 PA for Troy in 1880) and third baseman Mike Muldoon) in their lineup. Left fielder Dude Esterbrook has not played in the league since 1880 (Buffalo) and center fielder John Richmond was brought in from Boston.

In the aforementioned 35-4 shellacking at the hands of the champion White Stockings, reserve outfielder Dave Rowe was in the box, and gave up 29 hits and 7 walks.

DETROIT



The Wolverines were at the center of the relatively limited player battles between the NL and the AA; again, this topic will be expounded upon in the AA entry, but backup infielders Dasher Troy (11 games in 1881) and Sam Wise (1 game) were not reserved after the 1881 season and signed with AA clubs. Eventually, Troy returned to Detroit and was the regular second baseman, while Wise wound up with Boston. Catcher Charlie Bennett was a major point of contention as well, but that was for an 1883 contract.

Rookie Joe Farrell was the third baseman, while Mike McGeary was imported from Cleveland to play short.

TROY



The Trojans featured two regular rookies, shortstop Fred Pfeffer and pitcher Jim Egan. John Smith started the year as the first baseman but later wound up in Worcester. Buck Ewing played third primarily (44 games), but also caught 25 games. Roger Connor as a center fielder seems interesting, but he actually spent more time at first (43 G) than he did in the outfield (24). Outside of Pete Gillespie and Chief Roseman, the outfield situation was quite murky.

The team finished only 19.5 games back, but it probably seemed a lot worse. They suffered through a sixteen game losing streak, lost money to the point where they had to be subsidized, and were eventually kicked to the curb, a casualty of the skirmish with the AA and good old-fashioned financial problems.

WORCESTER



The Brown Stockings finished 18.5 games behind Troy. The team featured two rookie outfielders, Tom O’Brien and Jackie Hayes. Left fielder Jim Clinton had not played in the National League since 1876 (with Louisville). An interesting transaction apparently resulted in Frank Mountain being loaned to Philadelphia of the AA for about a month beginning around the end of May.

The team drew just 11,000 fans for the entire season, around 260 a game. In an attempt to boost attendance, the team pioneered the single admission doubleheader. The roster was overhauled in an attempt to remove “rowdiness and dissension”, and franchise pitcher Lee Richmond was hampered by a sore arm. Despite this, he was one of just two regulars to hit better than the league average (first baseman Harry Stovey was the other).

In September, the NL voted to drop Troy and Worcester, perhaps fearful of the AA’s upper hand in attendance and entry into large cities long ignored by the NL, or just plain tired of having weak sisters in the circuit. Worcester apparently threatened to resign at this point, which would have caused all their games to be struck from the standings. This was confusion was another catalyst in some of the Chicago/Providence pennant controversy, but Worcester played 84 games, so apparently it wound up being an idle threat.

The departure of Troy and Worcester essentially marked the end of an era in which a very small city (relatively, of course) could field a "major league" team, with the exception of the future chaotic three league seasons.

Leaders and trailers:
BATTING AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.368)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (.362)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (.330)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (.158)
ON BASE AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.403)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (.397)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (.382)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (.174)
SLUGGING AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.547)
2. Roger Connor, TRO (.530)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (.510)
Trailer: George Wright, PRO (.189)
Doc Bushong’s BA was .004 lower than Wright’s, his OBA .006. I’m not sure that I’m aware of a superstar who ended his career in a sorrier state than George Wright did, essentially as the worst regular in the league or close to it. That doesn’t mean there isn’t one; I just can’t think of one. This was a rapidly evolving and improving game.
SECONDARY AVERAGE
1. Jim Whitney, BSN (.283)
2. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.239)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (.238)
Trailer: George Wright, POR (.049)
RUNS CREATED
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (90)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (84)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (79)
4. George Gore, CHN (77)
5. Paul Hines, PRO (75)
ARG
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (197)
2. Jim Whitney, BSN (190)
3. Cap Anson, CHN (184)
4. Roger Connor, TRO (166)
5. Joe Start, PRO (163)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (34)
WAA
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (+3.9)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (+3.4)
3. Paul Hines, PRO (+3.0)
4. Roger Connor, TRO (+2.8)
5. Jim Whitney, BSN (+2.8)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, PRO (-2.6)
WAR
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (+4.8)
2. Paul Hines, PRO (+4.4)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (+4.3)
4. Jack Glasscock, CLE (+4.3)
5. Cap Anson, CHN (+4.2)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (-1.0)
ARA
1. Larry Corcoran, CHN (68)
2. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (75)
3. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (84)
4. Jim McCormick, CLE (86)
5. Stump Wiedman, DET (86)
Trailer: Fred Corey, WOR (139)
WAA
1. Larry Corcoran, CHN (+3.0)
2. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (+2.7)
3. Jim McCormick, CLE (+2.3)
4. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (+2.0)
5. Stump Wiedman, DET (+1.5)
Trailer: George Derby, DET (-2.6)
T WAR
1. Jim Whitney, BSN (+5.0)
2. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (+3.9)
3. Larry Corcoran, CHN (+3.5)
4. Jim McCormick, CLE (+3.2)
5. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (+3.1)
Trailer: George Derby, DET (-2.5)

My all-star team:
C: Charlie Bennett, DET
1B: Dan Brouthers, BUF
2B: Fred Dunlap, CLE
3B: Ed Williamson, CHN
SS: Jack Glasscock, CLE
LF: Joe Hornung, BSN
CF: Paul Hines, PRO
RF: Curry Foley, BUF
P: Jim Whitney, BSN
P: Hoss Radbourn, PRO
MVP: SS Jack Glasscock, CLE
Rookie Hitter: 3B Mike Muldoon, CLE
Rookie Pitcher: One Arm Daily, BUF

I went with Joe Hornung over a close group in left field that included Dalrymple, York, and Wood on the strength of his +12 Fielding Runs (ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, Palmer & Gillette).

The right field crop is very weak; Curry Foley at 2.2 WAR wouldn’t be in the top four in left or the top three in center. Actually, I would pick the two runner-up centerfielders (Gore and Connor, with the caveat that Connor was playing first more than the outfield) over Hornung or Curry. However, my principle has been to pick guys who actually played the position for the “all-star team”, not players at comparable positions who were actually more valuable. This is especially problematic in the early years of the NL as right field was still much-used as a place to hide a butcher or a change pitcher.

The rookie crop this year was very weak as well. In past seasons, there had always been rookies with a legitimate claim to being the all-star at their position. This season, Mike Muldoon was solid (2.2 WAR), but hardly star-caliber. Of course, there were only eight regular rookie hitters to choose from, and just two pitchers, each of whom ranked below replacement level. It is easy to speculate that the cause of this was the demand for players caused by six new major league teams. This would not have nearly the impact it would today, as several of the AA teams were already respectable independent clubs, but certainly talent was not as available as it had been.

Finally, my choice of Jack Glasscock as MVP is predicated on his 24 Fielding Runs. On offense and position, I had him .5 WAR behind Dan Brouthers. So all I have to do is believe that he was around 5 runs better in the field relative to his position than Brouthers. Given Glasscock’s reputation and his perennial good standing in FR, I am more than willing to believe it.

1882-1883 Introduction

In my long-neglected effort to apply sabermetric measures to the nineteenth century game while also providing a perfunctory history, I have chosen to treat the seasons of 1882 and 1883 together. In fact, the statistical methods that I have used here are for the most part the same as those that I used for 1876-1881. It is not until 1884 that I felt the need to delineate a new era, so to speak (and of course subject to disagreement).

However, I split these two seasons off on the historical level because for the first time, the National League has a competitor engaging it on similar terms. What I mean by this is that there had previously been independent professional clubs, some of which were similar in quality to some of the NL teams. However, until the American Association began play in 1882, there had not been another league that behaved in the way which we would expect a major league to today--setting a schedule centrally (or at least proscribing the number of games that should be played between each club), setting uniform playing rules, restricting membership, attempting to improve the position of the league as a whole rather than solely worrying about the affairs of one club, etc.

In 1884, the Union Association will emerge as another challenger (at least in the dreams of its backers), and I think that is another good place to draw a line. I also found that run estimation in the mid-to-late 1880s is trickier than in the 1876-1883--not any less accurate, in most cases, but only after applying different formulas to smaller groups of seasons.

So, the methodology for the 1882 and 1883 recaps will be much the same as for 1876-1881; see the links on the right side of the page for a refresher. The Base Runs method being used is:

A = H + W - HR + E + .08SH
B = (.726S + 1.948D + 3.134T + 1.694HR + .052W + .799E + .727SH + 1.165WP + 1.174PB - .05(AB - H - E))*1.087
C = AB - H - E + .92SH
D = HR

As I mentioned in the earlier piece, the inclusion of SH was an embarrassing mistake on my part, but it all washes out since the SH are just an estimate based on singles, walks, and estimated errors--it just shifts around the values of those a bit, in a way that made the formula slightly more accurate. But there really were no sacrifice hits at this stage of the game's development, and I knew that, and I flat out forgot it when working on the run estimator. Embarrassing.

I would also be remiss if I did not point out that the formula does not work as well for the AA teams as it does for the NL teams, so all of the results for the AA in 1882-83 should be taken with an extra grain of salt. Again, I cannot stress enough that all of the metrics should be looked at with a much more jaundiced eye than similar figures for recent times.

The formulas used for the NL are the same, except I used a custom error estimate each year. E = x(AB - H - K), and the value for x is .1277 in 1882 and .1409 in 1883.

The BsR formula generates these linear weights for the seasons. The first set is presented as S, D, T, HR, W, E, AB-H-E, SH, PB, WP. The second set is the one that is actually applied to players, where the coefficients for the categories we don’t have (SH, PB, and WP--we also don’t have errors of course, but have estimated those) are “folded” into the weights for singles, walks, outs, etc. So those weights are displayed as S, D, T, HR, W, E, AB-H-E:

1882: .549, .836, 1.114, 1.397, .391, .566, -.143, .080, .275, .273
1882: .583, .867, 1.145, 1.397, .425, .600, -.143
1883: .561, .845, 1.120, 1.393, .405, .578, -.150, .073, .273, .270
1883: .594, .876, 1.151, 1.393, .438, .611, -.150

For the American Association, I have used different estimates for WP and PB (but the same estimate for SH):
WP = .0449*(H + W - HR + E)
PB = .0836*(H + W - HR + E)

The AA did not track batter strikeouts, so errors must be estimated as a proportion of (AB-H). This proportion is .1323 for 1882 and .1269 for 1883.

And the linear weights for the AA:
1882: .549, .846, 1.134, 1.411, .386, .587, -.145, .084, .285, .283
1882: .587, .881, 1.169, 1.411, .423, .605, -.145
1883: .558, .851, 1.136, 1.407, .396, .575, -.149, .079, .282, .280
1883: .595, .886, 1.171, 1.407, .433, .612, -.149

For teams, I have decided to stop using PW% and producing an estimate for Runs Created Allowed. Those estimates weren’t particularly accurate, anyway, and it’s a hassle to come up with different formulas each season for estimating all of the missing data from the defensive perspective--opponent at bats, doubles, etc. If I felt that those categories were adding something substantial, I would go through the effort.

I have also marked "rookies" in pink--I used 100 PA or 50 IP in the majors (NA, NL, AA for this time period) as the cutoff points.

In the next installment I will begin the yearly review with the 1882 NL. The details of the NL/AA relationship will mostly be saved for the AA portion, but they may be hinted at in the NL installment.

Great Moments in Yahoo! Schedules

Tripleheader!

April 4, 1994

What was the most important game in the history of the major leagues? Perhaps it was one of the games that could be argued to have been the very first major league game (the National Association’s first game on May 4, 1871 between Cleveland and Fort Wayne; the National League’s on April 22, 1876 between Boston and Philadelphia; or the American League’s on April 24, 1901, between Cleveland and Chicago). Maybe it was October 3, 1951 as Bobby Thomson hit The Shot Heard Round the World. You would get a lot of support for April 15, 1947 as Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and rightfully so. From a business standpoint, consider April 14, 1953, the Braves’ first game in Milwaukee after fifty years of franchise stability, or April 10, 1961 as the second Senators hosted the White Sox to open the expansion era.

Or maybe you’d point out that I’ve not attempted to define what makes a game important as opposed to the circumstances that led to it, and that too many factors would go into doing so to produce a coherent result. There have literally been hundreds of thousands of games in major league history, and so this exercise is inherently silly. But one question I can answer with absolute certainty is “What was the most important game to you, personally?” And that was the 1994 Opening Day game between the Mariners and the Indians, the first regular season game ever played at Jacobs Field.

By late 1993, I was pretty interested in sports, but not baseball. Baseball simply had not captured my interest the way that football and basketball had. I really can’t put my finger on why that was, as my personality even at a young age was well-suited to quiet contemplation, patient and passive spectatorship, and interest in numbers and factoids. It is obvious now that baseball is the perfect sport for me, but it was no less true long before I knew that.

I suppose I can assign some of the blame for this to the Indians. The organization was mired in a few decades of persistent losing, and there was no excitement surrounding the team. I was (sadly) a sports talk radio listener at this point and the Browns dominated the Cleveland scene (they still do, of course, but to a lesser extent). There was no social or peer pressure to follow the Indians, and thus in a pre-internet, no cable household, baseball in general. My dad was a casual baseball fan; I remember watching some of the 1993 World Series on a Friday or Saturday night. We also went to one of the Indians final games at Municipal Stadium in September 1993, but it was on a Sunday and my most indelible memory of the whole thing was fans huddling around a gentleman watching the Browns on a mini TV.

However, the tone started to shift a little bit in the spring of 1994, as there seemed to be genuine optimism regarding the Indians and excitement for the opening of Jacobs Field. I added free agent signings Dennis Martinez and Eddie Murray to the list of Indian players whose names I knew (Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Kenny Lofton, Jose Mesa, maybe Sandy Alomar), but was obviously still far from engaged as any sort of fan.

Then April 3, 1994 rolled around, the first regular season game at Jacobs Field between the Indians and the Mariners. Dennis Martinez v. Randy Johnson. Even as a kid I had a decent sense of history, so I believe that I was aware and interested in this event, but sadly not solely for it just being an Opening Day baseball game. It was pretty much the last time that I wouldn’t be interested in a major league game just on the basis of it being a baseball game.

The details that follow are all courtesy of the play-by-play account, as I have very little memory of the specifics of this game. The details of most games become fuzzy over time, replaced by memories of specific moments and a general haze. This is especially true for me with the earliest games I remember, and while the (gulp) decades that have elapsed are certainly a contributing factor, I don’t think it’s the only one, or even the primary one. Rather, my memories from this time suffer from my inability at the time to process baseball in context--the lack of a real-time knowledge base from which to differentiate those events that were truly memorable from those that were more mundane. I also would cite the lack of keeping score, which could be dismissed as a crutch in lieu of actual memories, but in my opinion is an essential tool with which to place the events of the game within the context of the game itself, let alone across time. Even in a typical game with seventy-five plate appearances, I find it’s easy to lose track of the truth and replace it with one’s own narrative in absence of a trusty scoresheet.

Seattle scored in the first and third to take a 2-0 lead. Meanwhile, Randy Johnson was pitching a no-hitter, which was notable for a couple reasons beyond the obvious. One, Johnson, while not yet established as a Hall of Fame super-ace, had already pitched a no-hitter and was clearly one of the leading candidates to do so again among active pitchers. Secondly, the only Opening Day no-hitter had been thrown by Bob Feller for the Tribe, and Feller was in attendance for the opening of the new era in Indians baseball. It was sometime around the seventh inning when I got home from school and started listening to this familiar yet also newish (to me) sport of baseball on the radio. It may sound overly dramatic and absurd, but it is not untrue to say that, literally, my life would never be the same.

In the eighth, the Indians finally got something going offensively. Candy Maldonado led off with a walk (that was about the only thing he did well in 1994), the fifth surrendered by Johnson (a reminder that this was pre-super-ace Johnson). Sandy Alomar singled to break up the no-hitter, a wild pitch moved the runners up, and Manny Ramirez doubled them in to tie the game.

Johnson was relieved by Tim Davis in the ninth, and the Indians rallied with two out on an Albert Belle double and Eddie Murray infield single, but Paul Sorrento struck out. In the tenth, the Mariners scored off Jose Mesa thanks mainly to singles by Ken Griffey and Kevin Mitchell, but Bobby Ayala and Kevin King couldn’t close it--the Indians rallied again. After Alomar struck out swinging to open the inning, Ramirez walked (Wayne Kirby pinch-ran) and Jim Thome hit a pinch-hit double. That’s right--Mark Lewis started the game at third over Thome given the latter’s perceived ineptness against southpaws. Somewhat bizarrely, Kenny Lofton was intentionally walked, Omar Vizquel hit into a fielder’s choice to score Kirby, and Carlos Baerga flew out, pushing the 3-3 game to an eleventh inning.

Eric Plunk retired Seattle in order in the top of the inning. In the bottom, King got Belle to ground out before Murray doubled. Sorrento flied out and Murray took third. Seattle intentionally walked Alomar to get to Kirby, who was now batting in Ramirez’s spot. Kirby lined a single down the left field line, and the Indians won the game 4-3.

It is difficult to exaggerate how much this game changed my attitude towards baseball. It might not have been entirely immediate, but if not it was pretty close. Memories are a bit fuzzy at this point, but for whatever reason, I remember being dragged along by my parents to shop for a refrigerator on Sunday April 10. The Indians’ fifth game of the season had been rained out at Kansas City on Saturday, so Chris Nabholz was skipped in the rotation and Dennis Martinez was pitching again on the TV at the appliance store. This confused me, and my dad explained to me that the fifth starter is often skipped in such a situation. The point of this mundane story? I knew who the fifth starter was.

That spring and summer, I became obsessed with both the Indians and collecting baseball cards. I hated the White Sox as the Indians chased them in the division, I followed all the intrigue of Albert Belle’s corked bat suspension and rejoiced when he homered in his return. I penciled Kenny Rogers’ perfect game into the list in my Information Please Sports Almanac, the baseball section of which had previously not gotten much attention but now was well-worn. By the end of the year I had subscriptions to two baseball publications (Beckett Baseball Card Monthly and Baseball Digest). I was starting to apply my natural interest in figures and analysis into what would, by spring of the next year, be a nascent interest in sabermetrics and by the next year be a full-blown obsession.

And when the players went on strike? I was disappointed, to be sure, but an event that potentially could have crushed a young fan before he had a chance to be fully invested had zero impact on my newfound infatuation. The next spring I eagerly learned all the names of the Indians’ replacement players and was ready to cheer for our ace Joe Slusarski, our middle-of-the-order thumper Joe Biasucci, our Kenny Lofton replacement Eric Yelding. After April 4, 1994, none of that really mattered. I was a baseball fanatic for good.

Would I have found the game in lieu of the excitement of this game? Given the Indians’ 1994 resurgence, I assume I would have, just not as soon. But had the Indians not emerged as a competitive team at that point, it gets murkier. Had I grown much older without discovering the wonder of baseball, it would have been too late to have it as an integral part of my mid-childhood and I can’t imagine being the same level of fan that I am today. But after the Opening Day game, I’m convinced that the Indians could have lost the rest of their games and the spark would not have been extinguished. I know precisely when I became a baseball fan--twenty years ago today.

Great Moments in Yahoo! Box Scores

Yahoo! has once again modified the appearance of their sports data package...standings, schedules, box scores, etc. I prefer the old format, but that's really not the point. What it does not appear as if they've done (and they never do) is to fix the bugs that are endemic. Today, it appears from the BOS/BAL box score that the AL has made some serious changes to the DH rule; apparently teams must have a DH, but must remove one of the other fielders as a result. The Red Sox went without a third baseman, the Orioles without a second baseman. Never change, Yahoo! box scores.

2014 Predictions

In lieu of a general disclaimer about the whole prediction game, from now on I can just point you to this piece. As a more specific disclaimer, please note that the missive that follows is only loosely based on objective sabermetric analysis—I do not have my own projection system, nor have I constructed detailed depth charts of each team, and thus my guesses are not in any way comparable to those of serious analysis. While there is no way I can approach making predictions without considering sabermetrics (since sabermetrics is a fundamental part of how I view anything in baseball), these are in no way “sabermetric predictions”. If Milwaukee loses 95 games, it’s not because sabermetrics have failed, I just would have made an awful guess. That has happened before (this in particular was a bloodbath) and it will happen again:

AL EAST

1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston (wildcard)
3. New York
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

Picking this division is not fun; I’m assuming here that Tampa Bay can maintain a reasonably steady level of performance, that Boston will regress a bit, and that all of New York’s free agents will only serve to paper over the loss of Cano and perhaps achieve underlying quality at the level of 2013’s actual record. It’s not at all hard to envision scenarios where the Rays’ decline in minor league depth leave them unable to overcome injuries and they end up as sellers, or where the Yankees get a rebound from Sabathia, improvement from Nova, a resurrection of Pineda, and end up with a fearsome starting rotation. What I’m more confident about is that Toronto and Baltimore would need a lot to go right. Picking Toronto ahead of Baltimore may feel wrong, and may be an opportunity to chide sabermetricians about overlooking the Orioles again, but the 2013 Orioles were essentially what their statistics said they should have been. A late flourish to add Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez only slightly pushes their projection forward, and is pretty much wiped out by potential regression/injury woes for Manny Machado. A lot of people (myself included) were way too high on the Blue Jays last year, but a lot went wrong and a .500 season is a reasonable target.

AL CENTRAL

1. Detroit
2. Kansas City
3. Cleveland
4. Chicago
5. Minnesota

The potential cracks show in the Tigers: their now ugly shortstop situation, the growing reliance on Miguel Cabrera in the middle of the order, aging complementary hitters; but given the competition, they are still among the safest bets to win a division. The Royals figure to be the new leader of the chase pack if their starting pitching patches (most importantly Yordano Ventura) can deliver. I’m not at all convinced that picking the Indians third with 80 wins was a good idea--the closer it is to the season, the worse I feel about the rotation and the more the possibility of one of those annoying White Sox resurrections looms. I attempt to be as neutral of a baseball observer as possible, but I can’t help but be biased towards the Indians. Among the other teams, there are none that I have any particular antipathy against, with two exceptions (sure, at the moment I find Philadelphia and Arizona insufferable due to various management personalities, but I hold no inherent ill-will towards those franchises). Those two are the Tigers, simply because of the collegiate loyalty of many of their fans, and the White Sox, the one team I just flat out don’t like. So I now tend to view the White Sox as possessing black magic. Jose Abreu could be a more reasonable explanation should they overplay expectations. I plan on seeing the Twins in Baltimore at the end of August, maybe they could call up Byron Buxton for me then?

AL WEST

1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (wildcard)
3. Oakland
4. Seattle
5. Houston

I keep waffling on this division, and the pitchers keep getting hurt. The Angels have fooled me each of the past two seasons, but made a valiant effort to deepen their staff with the Trumbo trade. With the carnage going on in Oakland and Texas, it’s not outside the realm of reason to suggest that Los Angeles may have the most stable group of pitchers in the division. It’s also easy to forget that Pujols is only a year removed from being a down-ballot MVP candidate. Things haven’t gone great for the Rangers since Josh Hamilton was on fire and they were hailed by some as the greatest team since the 1998 Yankees (May 2012 or so). While this has been amusing, it would be easy to overstate the extent of their struggles given that they have made the playoffs once and barely missed in 2013. The trade for Fielder and signing of Choo make a lot of sense for the short-term; the biggest obvious concerns are the injuries that have piled up and a more general thinning of the starting pitching, but none of the other AL West contenders are free of such questions. I’ve never fully bought in to the 2012-13 A’s, but that’s a reflection on me, not the team. They’ve stocked the bullpen, but the injuries to Parker and Griffin have thinned the starting ranks, and Scott Kazmir is one of the still-healthy pitchers. Uh-oh. The Mariners are good enough that positive deviations from expectations can put them in the hunt for a playoff spot, but to this outsider #6org appears to be in job preservation rather than strategic planning mode. Maybe they’ve finally found their own competitive edge in black magic to destroy their opponents’ pitching staffs. The Astros are still not good, but the league/division shift obscured the fact that even from a W-L record, they were no worse in ’13 than ’12 (CTR ticked up from 46 to 48). I was a tad too optimistic about their 2013 record, but people who are picking them to once again be historically bad are being a little silly. The bullpen alone is easy pickings for improvement, let alone players like Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman brought in as placeholders.

NL EAST

1. Washington
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami

The 2013 Nationals were a wonderful lesson in why it’s dumb to pick teams to win 100 games, in why it’s dumb to ignore the plexiglas principle, and why if everyone is picking one outcome, you can often look smart by picking anything else. The 2014 Nationals appear to me to present a wonderful lesson in why one should not get hung up on the previous year’s performance in picking the next season, and in the benefits of playing in a weakened division. I’m picking them to win the World Series not because I’m convinced they are the best team in MLB (although they certainly could be), but because of the strongest teams, they’re the ones with the best combination of talent, weak-ish division, and playing in the inferior league. I was going to pick the Braves second even before the UCLs started popping, but I might have picked them for a wildcard spot before Beachy and Medlen went down. The hope is there for a Jason Heyward monster season, but the loss of McCann and the loss of luster of the Upton brother combination make the offense a bigger question mark. No team is ever more underrated than a poor team playing in a huge media market; you’d think the Mets were closer to 1962 than 2001 based solely on media and fan kvetching. They seem like a perfectly normal mediocre team to me. It might be wise to pick the Phillies ahead of the Mets, but it’s more fun to do it this way. The Marlins look lousy on paper but have to be one of the higher variance teams widely picked to have the worst record in their league.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis
2. Milwaukee (wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cincinnati
5. Chicago

The Cardinals organization is drawing high praise from all over the map, and for good reason--there is no other team that appears better positioned to weather injuries or implosions. Still, the smart money would bet on a decline in record from 2013, and in the mainstream narrative they are benefitting a bit from the halo of postseason success. They are still very well-positioned in the NL Central. Everyone should be granted one off-the-wall pick and mine is Milwaukee as a wildcard team. The addition of Garza makes their rotation quite respectable and they can easily gain a few wins on paper simply by using a non-Betancourt humanoid at first and avoiding last year’s second base meltdown (either Weeks or Gennett should be able to handle that on their own). And while it has nothing to do with a rational evaluation of their chances, the absurd suspension of A-Rod makes Ryan Braun the de facto symbol of the forces of resistance against the steroid totalitarians, and gives him and the Brewers the moral high ground. A lot of things went right for the Pirates in 2013, and I really don’t like their team better than Cincinnati’s, but the Reds have very little depth, particular offensively. An injury to Votto or Bruce would be disastrous, as the rest of the lineup features declining veterans (Ludwick, Phillips), a thoroughly unremarkable Frazier, and a cadre of youngish guys with questionable on base ability (Mesoraco, Cozart, Hamilton). The most interesting thing about the Cubs season will likely be the countdown to Baez & Bryant, but bounce back seasons from Castro and Rizzo are just as important to the long-term plan.

NL WEST

1. Los Angeles
2. San Francisco (wildcard)
3. Arizona
4. San Diego
5. Colorado

The Dodgers are an interesting case, as they appear to me to be highly overrated even by objective systems (BP calls for 98 wins, a figure which I find shocking). A healthy and full potential Dodger team might indeed be a juggernaut, but they have plenty of star players with big question marks (Kemp, Ramirez, Puig, Crawford), and a couple very sketchy offensive positions (second and third base). I’m not saying they shouldn’t be clear favorites in the NL West, and maybe I’m just missing something (and I picked them to win last year, which while hardly bold was not nearly as mundane as it is this year), but a 90% playoff probability doesn’t compute. The Giants will attempt to continue their even year success, and I think they have a pretty good shot to do so; a reasonably effective Tim Hudson and return to form from Matt Cain may be key. The Diamondbacks improved last year, they just don’t realize it because the Pythagorean fortune didn’t persist. When your big moves are to trade for Mark Trumbo and sign Bronson Arroyo, staying at .500 begins to feel ambitious. The Padres have taken over the mantle of the most boring team in baseball; it’s hard to see how they contend without a temporary blip like they experienced in 2010. The Rockies offer some more boom potential if for no reason other than Tulo, but contention is still a longshot.

WORLD SERIES

Washington over Tampa Bay

I believe that were this to come to fruition, it would be the most southern World Series in history, between two cities that are in no way southern.

AL Rookie of the Year: SP Yordano Ventura, KC

AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish, TEX

Assuming he only misses a start or two.

AL MVP: 3B Evan Longoria, TB

NL Rookie of the Year: 2B Kolten Wong, STL

NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, WAS

NL MVP: OF Jason Heyward, ATL

Worst team in each league: HOU, MIA

Most likely to go .500 in each league: TOR, ATL

Over/under on media personalities who will have to choke back tears re: Derek Jeter on national television: Seven

Will at least one sane human being have a brain hemorrhage as a direct result of Derek Jeter overload?: Yes