Thursday, April 21, 2005

Belated Predictions

A little late for this, but what the heck. You'll have to take my word for it that I made these before the season. I'll try to provide some reasoning for these, although honestly, I have no idea what I was thinking when I made some of these picks(and the comments will attempt to ignore what has happened during the season):
New York(wildcard)
Tampa Bay
The Red Sox and Yankees look like the two best teams in baseball, but I think this year the Red Sox will get over the top and take the division. Tampa Bay has some good young players...check back in 2008.
Kansas City
The Plexiglass Principle make it tough to justify the selection of CLE and DET ahead of CHA, but I just don't see trading for Scott Podsednik, losing Magglio Ordonez, and missing Frank Thomas for a good portion of the season as the way to win a division.
Los Angeles
The Angels should win this thing, but Oakland should be better then people are giving them credit for. Texas should regress, but the Mariners were so bad last year it's tough to pick them out of last place. I know that making fun of the Angels names is old and blase, but I don't think I've seen anyone point out that the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim" is, if you translate the spanish words to english, "The Angels Angels of Anaheim". Seriously, I prefer "LA" to "Anaheim". Not that anyone asked me, since I hate the rally monkey and was ticked when they won the World Series in 2002, but I've always liked teams named after cities and not suburbs. Now I know that Anaheim:Los Angeles is not the same as Richfield(where the Cavs used to play):Cleveland, but to people in Des Moines, I would assume that Anaheim and Los Angeles are considered the same thing. Sure, people in Minnesota might get touchy about St. Paul v. Minneapolis, but it's all Minneapolis to me. Los Angeles Angels is the original name and the better name, IMO.
New York
This has the potential to be a great four team race. The last two years I picked the Phils(even picked them to win the pennant last year), so they'll probably finally break through the year I remove my support. But count me in the newly developing "pick Atlanta until they lose" crowd. It's uncanny. The Mets could crash and burn or they could win the thing.
St. Louis
I have no idea what I was thinking when I picked the Reds in the cellar. It's a good thing the two kids I encountered yesterday don't read this blog...they'd probably try to string me up for this one. I was wearing an Indians cap and a Reds t-shirt, and they were both wearing Reds t-shirts and hats. When I saw them I could tell they were serious fans, and I kind of got a smirk/embarassed grin on my face. The one kid then turned around and said "A Reds t-shirt and a Indians hat!?? Who are you?" All I could offer was a weak "Yeah, I get that a lot". Hey, they're in two different leagues, they play six times a year max, the only time they could ever compete for a championship is in the World Series, what's the big deal? Sure I'd root for the Tribe in that series, but I wouldn't be upset if the Reds won. We're all Ohioans, aren't we.

Digression aside, I see the Brewers passing the Astros who are getting old fast and not bringing in the young talent like they used to.
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
The Dodgers and Padres are the only two teams I like here, although With Barry All Things are Possible.
Boston over Los Angeles
I hate all of these prediction exercises. Especially when you get to bigger and bigger championships, determined by fewer and fewer games. There is no reason why any team I've picked to make the playoffs couldn't win the World Series(or why any team I've not picked to make the playoffs couldn't, with the obvious exceptions). But this really got me during the Yankees run of pennants. I would pick the Yankees to win the pennant, but I didn't really think they would win the pennant. What you're actually saying is that they have the best chance of any team to win the pennant. Say the Yankees have a 30% chance, the BoSox 25%, the Twins and Angels 15%, and everybody else 2-3%(ridiculous numbers, of course, but just to make a point). You pick the Yankees to win the pennant, but you're actually saying there's a 70% chance they WON'T win the pennant. It would be better to provide odds like Vegas, but that's too much work and it's more fun to say the Red Sox will beat the Dodgers in the World Series--and they will :)
ROY - Nick Swisher, OAK
CY - Randy Johnson, NYA
MVP - Alex Rodriguez, NYA
I try to pick who I would be likely to vote for based on my expectations of their performance this season, not who the writers would. There's no way in all heck the Yankees will lose the division for the first time in eight years and still have two major award winners.
ROY - JJ Hardy, MIL
CY - Pedro Martinez, NYN
MVP - JD Drew, LA

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