Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Crude Playoff Odds

In a world where there are plenty of sources for playoff odds that actually take into account the personnel currently available for each team, projected rather than 2013-only performance, pitching matchups, and the like, there is no real reason for me to post this. Nonetheless, here are some very crude playoff odds. The key assumptions:

  • Team strength is constant and is measured by my Crude Team Ratings, using an equally weight of W%, EW%, and PW% regressed with 69 games of .500 
  • Home field advantage is uniform and the home team wins 54.5% of the time

From there, the math is pretty simple and I will present with little explanation. First, the ratings which are used to feed the estimates:

You may be surprised to see the Dodgers as the weakest playoff team in the ratings, but the NL West was not a strong division and the Dodgers' SOS in the ratings is just 28th, ahead of only Washington and Atlanta. LA ranks 11th in MLB in the ratings, with the ten teams ahead all being in the playoffs except for #8 Texas.

Odds for the wildcard games:

For the Division Series:

For the LCS:

For the World Series:

110-1 for a Cincinnati/Cleveland series.

Put it all together:

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