The Beals Goes On

Greg Beals is entering his tenth year at the helm of the OSU baseball program, having somehow parlayed a second run to the Big Ten Tournament title in three years into a three year contract extension. This despite his overall record over those nine seasons being the worst for the program in thirty years. At some point, it becomes an exercise in masochism even to repeat these facts. Greg Beals is apparently the coach for life.

This year, expectations are high. Baseball America ranked OSU #24 in their preseason Top 25, with only the forces of darkness joining them from the Big Ten at #8. Their explanation: “Ohio State brings its entire rotation back from that team and has a star behind the plate in Dingler”. That rotation will be fronted by redshirt sophomore lefty Seth Lonsway, who is likely to be a high draft pick come June. His strikeouts (12.3 per nine) outshone his overall performance (a good but not great +9 RAA) but offer the promise of an ace-level breakout. Fellow soph Garrett Burhenn was just as effective in 2019 (+10 RAA), but with a much more pedestrian strikeout rate. Junior lefty Griffan Smith was above average (+3 RAA) and should be a solid #3. It’s easy to see why this rotation - all of whom made at least fifteen starts and topped ninety innings – is highlighted as a strength.

The same can not be said for the bullpen, which is filled with significant question marks after Andrew Magno’s graduation. Last year, the weekday starters were by committee; only Jake Vance, now a senior, made more than three starts, and he only logged 41 innings over his 11 appearances/9 starts, and was not effective in doing so (7.90 RA). Sophomore Will Pfennig may be used as the relief ace, but also is a potential starter as he pitched 58 innings over 24 appearances in 2019.

Grad transfer lefty Patrick Murphy pitched sparingly during his time at Marshall, and in 18 innings last year allowed 7 runs with a troubling 11/15 K/W, but he Beals loves deploying lefty specialists and he may fit the bill. A couple of sophomore righties threw hard but didn’t know where it was going (Bayden Root with11.8 K/7.2 W over 35 innings and TJ Brock with 6.7/5.8 over 31) and their lefty classmate Mitch Milheim allowed 23 runs in as many innings (Milheim is another potential starter). Senior Joe Gahm only logged 19 innings; he was effective with a 4.26 RA but his peripherals tell a different story (6.63 eRA). He is one of only four returning Buckeye pitchers who had a RA better than the conference average in 2019 – the three starters are the others, which explains my concern about the bullpen. A cadre of freshman righties (Ethan Hammerberg, Cam Hubble, Tyler Kean, Wyatt Loncar, and Yianni Skeriotis) could be in the mix, and if there’s any justice in baseball than Ethan Hammerberg is a future lockdown closer.

Junior Dillon Dingler will handle the catching, and was Baseball America’s choice as preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. He did everything at the plate but hit for power last year (.291/.391/.424). His primary backup will be junior Brent Todys, who hit well enough last year to get at bats at DH where he is also penciled in as the starter for 2020 (.256/.345/.462). The four backstops on the rosters are all juniors as Dingler and Todys are joined by transfers Ronnie Allen and Archer Brookman.

Senior Conor Pohl is the incumbent at first, coming off a very consistent two year run of middling averages and power but solid walk rates (.279/.377/.393 in 2018 and .264/.350/.396 in 2019). Senior Matt Carpenter emerged from the bench as a Beals favorite as the second baseman, but his production (.257/.300/.324) left much to be desired. Sophomore Zach Dezenzo did an admirable job with an average offensive performance (.250/.316/.440) despite being stretched at shortstop due to an injury to now-senior Noah West. He will be counted on to be a middle of the order hitter for this squad. The aforementioned West is a solid fielder who was average at the plate in 86 PA before his injury, an improvement from his first two campaigns. Sophomore Nick Erwin will be a key backup; he struggled to a .235/.288/.272 line after being pressed into duty at the hot corner when Dezenzo slid over to short. Junior transfers Colton Bauer and Sam Wilson, sophomore Aaron Hughes, and freshman Avery Fisher round out the roster.

The outfield will have to be rebuilt as OSU’s top two offensive performers from 2019 (LF Brady Cherry and RF Dominic Canzone) are gone; they combined for a whopping 60 RAA. Also gone is center fielder Ridge Winand, although he will be easier to replace (-2 RAA). The only returning player with any significant experience is sophomore Nolan Clegg, who is penciled in to play right (.286/.348/.476 in 47 PA). The other spots are slated to go to freshman Mitchell Okuley (left) and Nate Karaffa (center), but there could be opportunities for a number of other players including juniors Jake Ruby and Scottie Seymour, redshirt freshman Alec Taylor, and true freshmen Joey Aden and Caden Kaiser.

OSU will open the season next weekend against lower-tier northern teams (St. Joe’s, Pitt, and Indiana State) in Port Charlotte, FL, then go to Georgia Tech and Lispcomb for true road series before facing Stetson, Harvard, and Fairfield at neutral sites and North Florida on the road. March 13 is the home opener at Bill Davis Stadium with a weekend series against Liberty, with the succeeding weekend opponents being Rutgers, @ Indiana, MSU, @ the forces of darkness, Illinois, The Citadel, @ Nebraska, Maryland, @ Northwestern. Mid-week opponents include Wright State (away), Bowling Green, Toledo, Morehead State, Dayton, Miami, Ohio University, Cincinnati (away), and Xavier (away).

Far be it from me to question Baseball America, but this does not look anything like a top 25 national team to me. The offense is not likely to be good; only Dingler and Dezenzo figure to be well above average performers, and the entire outfield is a question mark. The starting pitching is strong, but the depth behind it and the bullpen give less reason for optimism than the outfield, where at least hope can be placed on the shoulders of freshmen. Most of the non-weekend pitchers have already struggled; while we should expect a couple to take a step forward, they aren’t a blank slate on which to project hopes and dreams.

And there’s nothing in the world of Buckeye baseball further from such a blank slate than Greg Beals. Beals is what he is – a coach running a middle-tier Big Ten program in perpetuity, lucking his way to Big Ten Tournament titles that satiate his apathetic athletic director and even occasionally fool the wise folks at Baseball America. Coach for life despite having never won a conference title – it’s good work if you can get it, but it doesn’t make for a good fan experience.

A Most Pyrrhic Victory

It’s never fun to be in a position where you feel like your team’s short-term success will hamper its long-term prospects. For one, it is inherently an arrogant thought - holding that you can perceive something that often the professionals that run the team cannot (although one of the most common occurrences of this phenomenon in sports, rooting against current wins with an eye to draft position, doesn’t fit). It feels like a betrayal of the loyalty you supposedly hold as a fan, specifically with the players that you like who are caught in the crossfire. Most significantly, it’s just not fun - sports are fun when your team wins, not win they lose, even if you rationalize those losses as just one piece of a grander design.

It is even harder when the team in question represents your alma mater, an institution to which you feel an immense loyalty and pride, one far deeper than anything you feel towards any kind of social or religious institution, professional organization, or (of course) a government. Such is the predicament that I find myself in when following the fortunes of Ohio State baseball. It is a position I have never been in before as a fan of OSU sports - I have rarely been part of the rabble calling for a regime change in any sport, and in the one case I can recall in which I was, it wasn’t with any kind of glee or malice. I believed that the coach in question wanted to win, was trying their best, was a worthy representative of the university, might even succeed in turning it around if given the opportunity - but that it was probably time to reluctantly pull the plug.

None of this holds when considering the position of Greg Beals. Beals’ tenure at OSU now stretches, incredibly, over nine seasons, nine seasons that are much worse than any nine season stretch that proceeded it in the last thirty years of OSU baseball. A stretch of nine seasons in which a Big Ten regular season title has rarely been more than a pipe dream. I don’t feel like recounted the depressing details in this space - the season preview posts for the next four seasons will provide ample opportunity. That’s right - Beals now holds a three-year extension that takes him through 2023.

How has he managed to pull this off? Apparently with another well-timed run in the Big Ten Tournament, winning the event for the second time and thus earning an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. It’s not as if the Buckeyes were on the bubble before the tournament - well actually, they were. They were squarely on the bubble for the Big Ten tournament. OSU’s overall season record ended up at 36-27, but if you look deeper it was worse than that. At 12-12 in the Big Ten, they finished in a three-way tie for sixth place, needing help on the final day to qualify for the eight team field. Then they turned around and won it.

In the NCAA tournament, the Buckeyes were thumped by Vanderbilt, eked out a thirteen-inning victory over McNeese to stay alive, then falling to Indiana State. To add insult to injury, another Big Ten team, the one from the heart of darkness, also had an unlikely tournament run. Except that outfit, channeling the spirit of departed basketball coach/practitioner of the dark arts John Beilein, made their run in the NCAA tournament, all the way to 1-0 lead in the final series before the aforementioned Commodores restored order to the universe.

The Buckeyes were actually outscored by one run on the season, averaging 5.56 runs scored and 5.57 runs allowed per game. Compared to the average Big Ten team, the Bucks were +10 runs offensively and -15 runs defensively. However, this obscures some promising developments on the pitching side. The weekend rotation of Seth Lonsway (9 RAA, 12.3 K/5.8 W), Garrett Burhenn (10, 6.8/3.1), and Griffan Smith (3, 8.9/3.8) was surprisingly effective given its youth (sophomore, sophomore, freshman respectively). Relief ace Andrew Magno was absolutely brilliant (22, 10.4/5.0) with some heroic and perhaps ill-advised extended appearances in the tournaments; he was popped in the fifteenth round by Detroit. Outside of them, there were a group of relievers clustered between 2 and -3 RAA (Joe Gahm, Thomas Waning, Will Pfenig, and TJ Root) and a few rough lines - midweek starter Jake Vance had a 7.90 RA in 41 innings for -11 RAA, and three relievers (Mitch Milheim, TJ Brock, and usual position player Brady Cherry) combined for 57 innings and a whopping 65 runs allowed for -31 RAA. Thankfully most of these were low-leverage innings.

The pitching was also not done any favors by the defense, as Ohio recorded a DER of just .641 compared to a conference average of .656. The good news is that the offense made up for it at the plate; the bad news is that the best hitters have exhausted or foregone their remaining eligibility. The biggest excpetion was sophomore Dillon Dingler, who returned to his natural position behind the plate after a freshman year spent in center and hit .291/.391/.424 for 9 RAA. Junior Connor Pohl was just an average hitter playing first base, but is a solid defender and was durable. Senior Kobie Foppe lost the second base job as he struggled mightily over his 118 PA (.153/.284/.194); junior utility man Matt Carpenter assumed the role but only hit .257/.300/.324 himself. Sophomore Noah West started the season at shortstop and was much improved offensively (.284/.318/.420), but his injury led to a reshuffling of the defensive alignment, with freshman Zack Dezenzo moving over from third (he hit a solid .256/.316/.440 with 10 longballs) and classmate Marcus Ernst assuming the hot corner (.257/.316/.300 over 76 PA) before yielding to yet another freshman, Nick Erwin (.235/.288/.272 over 147 PA).

Senior Brady Cherry finally fulfilled his potential, mashing .314/.385/.563 for 23 RAA in left field. Little-used fifth-year senior Ridge Winand wound up as the regular center fielder, although his bat did not stand out (.243/.335/.347). In right field, junior Dominic Canzone had one the finest seasons ever by a Buckeye hitter, parlaying a .345/.432/.620 (37 RAA) line into an eighth-round nod from Arizona. Sophomore backup catcher Brent Todys eventually assume DH duties thanks to his power (.256/.345/.462); his .206 ISO trailed only Canzone and Cherry, who each blasted sixteen homers.

So the Beals era rolls on, and at least another Big Ten tournament title has been added to the trophy case. When official SID releases after the season-ending NCAA tournament loss to Indiana State say “Buckeyes Championship Season Comes to an End”, you wonder whether there is some sarcasm even amongst people who are paid to provide favorable coverage. And then you realize no, it’s not even spin, they really believe it. Once #BealsBall takes root, it is nigh near impossible to make it just go away.

Pitching Optional?

What happens when you take a team that got into the NCAA tournament despite finishing in the middle of the pack in its conference and relying on a makeshift pitching staff and remove the few reliable pitchers while leaving much of the offense intact? Does this sound interesting to you, like an experiment cooked up in the lab of a mad sabermetrician (or more likely a resident of that state up north)? If so, you may be interested in the 2019 Buckeyes.

In the ninth season of the seemingly never-ending Greg Beals regime, he once again has an entire unit with next to no returning experience. Sometimes this is unavoidable in college sports, but it happens to Beals with regularity as player development does not appear to be a strong suit of the program. Players typically either make an impact as true freshmen or are never heard from, while JUCO transfers are a roster staple to paper over the holes. The only difference with this year’s pitching situation is that holes are largely being plugged with freshmen rather than transfers.

The three pitchers penciled in as the rotation have precious little experience, with two true freshmen and a junior with 24 appearances and 11 starts in his career. Lefty Seth Lonsway was a nineteenth-round pick of Cincinnati and will be joined by classmate Garrett Burhenn, with Jake Vance as the junior veteran. Vance was +3 RAA in 36 innings last year, which doesn’t sound like much until you consider the dearth of returning performers on the rest of the staff.

Midweek starts and long relief could fall to sophomore lefty Griffan Smith, who was not effective as a freshman (-7 RAA in 32 innings). The other veteran relievers are junior Andrew Magno (sidelined much of last season with an injury, but Beals loves his lefty specialists so if healthy he will see the mound) and senior sidewarmer Thomas Waning, who was promising as a sophomore but coughed up 18 runs in 16 frames in 2018. A trio of freshmen righties are said to throw 90+ MPH (Bayden Root, TJ Brock, Will Pfenning) joined by other freshmen in Cole Niekamp and lefty Mitch Milheim. Joe Gahm is a junior transfer from Auburn via Chattahoochee Valley Community College and given his experience and BA ranking as a top 30 Big Ten draft prospect should find a role. Senior Brady Cherry will also apparently get a chance to pitch this season, something he has yet to do in his Buckeye career.

The Buckeye offense is more settled, and unless the pitchers exceed reasonable expectations will have to carry the team in 2019. Sophmore Dillon Dingler moves in from center field (that’s nothing, as recent OSU catcher Jalen Washington moved to shortstop) to handle the catching duties and was raved about by the coaches last season so big things are expected despite a .244/.325/.369 line. He’ll be backed up by sophomore transfer Brent Todys from Andrew College, with senior Andrew Fishel, junior Sam McClurg and freshman Mitchell Smith rounding out the roster.

First base will belong to junior Conner Pohl after he switched corners midway through 2018; he also played the keystone as a freshman so he’s been all over the infield. While his production was underwhelming for first base, at 3 RAA he was a contributor last season and looks like a player who should add power as he matures. Senior Kobie Foppe got off to a slow start last year, flipped from shortstop to second base, and became an ideal leadoff man (.335/.432/.385); even with some BABIP regression he should be solid. Third base will go to true freshman Zach Dezenzo, while junior shortstop Noah West needs to add something besides walks to his offensive game (.223/.353/.292). The main infield backups are freshman Nick Erwin at short, sophomore Scottie Seymour and freshmen Aaron Hughes and Marcus Ernst at the corners, and junior Matt Carpenter everywhere just like his MLB namesake (albeit without the offensive ability).

I’ll describe the outfield backwards from right to left, since junior right fielder Dominic Canzone is the team’s best offensive player (.323/.396/.447 which was a step back from his freshman campaign) and will be penciled in as the #3 hitter. The other two spots are not as settled as one would hope given the imperative of productive offense for this team. A pair of seniors will battle for center: Malik Jones did nothing at the plate as a JUCO transfer last year besides draw walks (245/.383/.286 in 63 PA) while Ridge Winand has barely seen the field. In left, senior Nate Romans has served as a utility man previously, although he did contribute in 93 PA last year (.236/.360/.431). Senior Brady Cherry completes his bounce around the diamond which has included starting at third and second; in 2018 he hit just .226/.321/.365, a step back from 2017. While he could get time in left, it’s more likely he’ll DH since the plan is to use him out of the bullpen as well. Other outfield backups are freshman Nolan Clegg in the corners and Alec Taylor in center.

OSU opens the season this weekend with an odd three-game series against Seton Hall in Pt. Charlotte, Florida. It is the start of a very lackluster non-conference schedule that doesn’t figure to help the Buckeyes’ cause come tournament time as the schedule did last year (although unfortunately as you can probably tell I tend to think the resume will be beyond help). There are no games against marquee names, although OSU will play MSU in a rare non-conference Big Ten matchup. The home schedule opens March 15 with a three-game series against Lipscomb, a one-off with Northern Kentucky, and a four-game series against Hawaii, whose players will probably wondering what they did to wind up in Columbus in mid-March when they could be home.

Big Ten play opens March 29 at Rutgers, with the successive weekends home to Northwestern and the forces of darkness, at Maryland, home to Iowa, at Minnesota, home to PSU, and at Purdue. Midweek opponents are the typical fare of local nines, including Toledo, Cincinnati, Ohio University (away), Dayton, Xavier, Miami (away), Wright State, and Youngstown State (away). The Big Ten tournament will be played May 22-26 in Omaha.

It’s hard to be particularly optimistic that another surprise trip to the NCAA tournament is in the cards. Even some of the best pitchers who have come through OSU have struggled as freshman so it’s hard to project the starting pitching to be good, and while there are productive returnees at multiple positions, only Canzone is a proven excellent hitter and a couple positions are occupied by players who must make serious improvement to be average. The non-conference schedule may be soft enough to keep the record respectable, but there are few opportunities to grab wins that will help come selection time. Aspiring to qualify for the Big Ten tournament seems a more realistic goal. Beals is the longest-tenured active coach at OSU in any of the four sports that I follow rabidly, which on multiple levels is concerning (although two of the three other program have coaches in place who have demonstrated their value at OSU, and the third did well in a three-game trial). Yet somehow Beals marches on, floating aimlessly in the middle of an improved Big Ten.

Note: This preview is always a combination of my own knowledge and observation along with the official season outlook released by the program, especially as pertains to position changes and newcomers about which I have next to no direct knowledge. That reliance was even greater this year due to the turnover on the mound.

A Mildly Pleasant Surprise

Given the low expectations that this author held for the 2018 Buckeyes, the season that was can be seen as quite successful. Rebounding from a dreadful 2017, OSU went 36-23 and 14-10 in the Big Ten. Although finishing in the exact middle of the conference (seventh), strength of schedule and a solid non-conference showing that included wins over Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina earned Ohio a second NCAA tournament bid under eighth-year coach Greg Beals. In the tournament, OSU’s bullpen buckled in the opener against South Carolina (8-3 loss), and a mid-game delay bifurcated the 4-3 thirteen inning loss to UNC-Wilmington that ended the season.

While the season itself was a success, the 2019 roster would appear to have a number of question marks, and in this corner, while rooting against the team is never an option, further job security for Beals is problematic.

Coming into the season it appeared that starting pitching would be a major issue after a disastrous 2017. It still was; the team succeeded despite, not because, of its starting pitching. Junior Connor Curlis was the only reliable starter, turning in 8 RAA while tying for the team lead with 17 appearances and 16 starts. Curlis was drafted by Cincinnati in the 24th round. Tying Curlis in appearances/starts and pitching 92 innings to lead him by three was classmate Ryan Feltner. Despite possessing good enough stuff to be a fourth round pick of Colorado, Feltner was -13 RAA with a 6.06 eRA that suggested he really pitched that poorly. Feltner’s ERA was held down as he allowed a whopping 21 unearned runs that drove his RA just over two runs higher than his ERA. (As an aside, OSU did not field well at all, last in the Big Ten with a .924 mFA and .647 DER). The other weekend starter, senior Adam Niemeyer, fared even worse at -15 RAA.

The bullpen was the saving grace, led by senior Seth Kinker who capped his career as one of the finest relievers in school history by walking just five batters in 63 innings, fanning 60, and leading the team with 13 RAA. The only real blemish on Kinker’s season was that he was unable to hold the lead in the NCAA opener against the Gamecocks. OSU also got solid work from senior Austin Woodby (9 RAA in 45 innings) and sophomore Jake Vance (3 RAA in 36 innings). Senior Kyle Michalik was slightly below average but still reliable, while classmate and erstwhile closer Yianni Pavlopulous somehow matched him at -2 RAA despite a ghastly 28/33 K/W ratio over 36 innings. His career came to an unfairly ignominious end when he was walked off by UNCW. Beals always relies on lefty specialists but sophomore Andrew Magno was injured early and freshman Griffin Smith (-7 RAA in 32 innings over 25 appearances) wasn’t ready for prime time. Junior Thomas Waning, who showed promise in 2017 as Michalik’s heir apparent as a sidearming middle reliever, was rocked for 18 runs in 16 innings.

It was offense that drove OSU’s success, as the Bucks averaged 6.5 runs per game (good for second in the conference). Junior Jacob Barnwell was again productive enough (-3 RAA) given his solid catch/throw game, and Colorado concurred, plucking him in the 22nd round of the draft. Freshman Dillon Dingler started the year as his backup before eventually becoming the starting center fielder (that’s nothing, as prior backstop Jalen Washington went to shortstop between 2016 - 2017); his .244/.325/.369 line definitely understates the future that the coaching staff sees for him. Junior Andrew Fishel got only 39 PA and slugged just .294, leaving backstop as a huge question mark for 2019.

Dingler wasn’t the only Buckeye who played at multiple positions, as the defensive alignment was in flux for much of the season. After getting hurt in his first season, senior JUCO transfer Noah McGowan was a monster, mashing .351/.433/.561 for 25 RAA, one of the best offensive outbursts by a Buckeye in recent years. McGowan played primarily first, third, and DH, where classmate Bo Coolen did not have as impressive of a second year bounce with an ISO of just .086 en route to -3 RAA. Junior JUCO transfer Kobie Foppe started at short but eventually moved to second coinciding with turning around his season at the plate. Foppe filled the leadoff role perfectly with a .335/.432/.385 line that produced 11 RAA. He took the spot lost by junior Brady Cherry, who failed to build on a promising sophomore season (.260/.336/.410 in 2017 to .226/.321/.365 in 2018).

Sophomore Connor Pohl started at third but eventually swapped corners with McGowan; his production was underwhelming for the latter role (.279/.377/.393 for 3 RAA) but still quite playable. Foppe’s replacement at short was sophomore Noah West, who improved on his 2017 offensive showing by taking walks but still has much room for improvement in other areas (.223/.353/.292). Junior Nate Romans was good in his utility role (.236/.360/.431 over 91 PA).

Senior Tyler Cowles also followed the Noah McGowan career path (although Cowles really struggled in 2017 as opposed to being derailed by injuries); Cowles was second on the team with 13 RAA from a .322/.381/.582 line. The aforementioned Dingler took centerfield after JUCO transfer Malik Jones struggled mightily outside of patience (.245/.383/.286 in 63 PA). Sophomore Dominic Canzone took a slight step back but was still excellent (.323/.396/.447 for 11 RAA) and will be counted on to anchor the 2019 attack.

It’s too early to draw many conclusions about the outlook for 2019, especially given Beals’ penchant for supplementing his roster through the JUCO ranks. But it is striking to note how the entire already mediocre starting rotation and most of the high-performing relievers are gone, along with the starting catcher and two of the top three offensive performers at the corners. As has usually been the case through his tenure, Beals will look to his modest past successes to ward off the heat that can result from a roster short on homegrown replacements. At a school where the demand for winning can sometimes be cutthroat, Beals has survived almost a decade by skirting by doing the bare minimum needed.

Doubles or Nothing

In previewing the season to come for any team, it is customary (for good reason) to start by taking a look back at the previous season. Sometimes this is a pleasant or at least unobjectionable experience. On some occasions, though, it forces one to review an absolute disaster of a season, as was turned in by the 2017 Ohio State Buckeyes.

OSU went 22-34, which was the lowest W% by a Buckeye club since 1974. Their 8-16 Big Ten record was the worst since 1987. The seven years in which Beals have been at the helm have produced a .564 W%, which excepting the largely overlapping span of 2008-2014, is the worst since 1986-1992. Beals has taken the program build by Bob Todd, who inherited the late 80s malaise, and driven it right back into mediocrity.

Yet merrily he rolls along, untroubled by the pressures of coaching at a school that fired its all-time winningest basketball coach for having two straight NCAA tournament misses, despite compiling a .500 record in Big Ten play over those two seasons. Beals and his unenlightened brand of baseball may be too small fry to draw the ire of AD Gene Smith, but tell that to the track, gymnastics, and women’s hockey coaches who have been pushed out in recent years. Beals record of doing less with a historically strong program is unmatched at the University.

When one peruses the likely lineup for 2018, it’s hard to think that a turnaround is imminent. Stranger things have happened, of course, but eight years into his tenure in Columbus, enough time to have nearly turned over two whole recruiting classes with no overlap, he is still plugging roster wholes with unproven JUCO transfers, failing to develop the high school recruits he’s brought in. It’s gotten to the point that if a player doesn’t find a role as a freshman, you can basically write him off as a future contributor.

Junior Jacob Barnwell is firmly ensconced at catcher; he was an average hitter last year and appears to have the coach seal of approval as a receiver, so he’s golden for playing time over the next two seasons. True freshman Dillon Dingler may be the heir apparent, with junior Andrew Fishel and redshirt freshman Scottie Seymour providing depth.

Seniors Bo Coolen and Noah McGowan, both JUCO transfers a year ago, will compete for first base; Coolen was bad offensively in 2017 with no power (.074 ISO), McGowan a little better but still below average. Junior Brady Cherry will move from the hot corner to the keystone, a curious move to this observer; Cherry flashed power as a freshman but was middling with the bat last year. That opens up third for sophomore Connor Pohl, who filled in admirably at second last year but does look more like a third baseman; on a rate basis he was the second most productive returning hitter, although it wasn’t a huge sample size (89 PA and it was very BA-heavy with a .325 BA/.225 SEC). JUCO transfer junior Kobie Foppe is penciled in at shortstop. The utility infielders are both sophomores; Noah West played more as a freshman, getting starts at second base (he didn’t hit at .213/.278/.303) and serving as a defensive replacement for Pohl, while Carpenter had 14 hitless (one walk) PAs. True freshman Aaron Hughes rounds out the roster.

Senior Tyler Cowles has the inside track at left field, coming off a first season as a JUCO transfer in which he hit .190/.309/.314 over 129 PA. McGowan could also contend for this spot, with backup outfield redshirt juniors Nate Romans and Ridge Winand also in the mix. JUCO transfer Malik Jones has been anointed as the centerfielder, with true freshman Jake Ruby as an understeady. Right field along with catcher is the only spot on the roster that features an established starter at the same position; sophomore Dominic Canzone is OSU’s best returning hitter, although it was BA heavy (.343 BA/.205 SEC). Some combination of Cowles, McGowan, and Fishel would appear to have the first crack at DH.

OSU’s pitching was an utter disaster last year, partly due to injury and partly because, well, Greg Beals. The only sure bet for the rotation appears to be senior Adam Niemeyer, with junior lefty Connor Curlis and senior Yianni Pavlopoulos (who closed as a sophomore) most likely to join him. Their RAs were 6.23, 5.03, and 7.65 respectively in 2017, although only Curlis had good health. Junior Ryan Feltner pitched poorly last year (7.32 RA over 62 IP despite 8.2 K/9), then went to the Cape Cod league and was named Reliever of the Year. Sophomore Jake Vance had a 6.92 RA over 26 innings, largely thanks to 20 walks, and is the fifth rotation candidate.

The perennial bright spot of the pitching staff is senior righty Seth Kinker, who easily led the team with 13 RAA over 58 innings, even getting 3 starts when everything fell to pieces. He figures to be the go-to reliever, with fifth-year senior righties Kyle Michalik, Austin Woody, and Curtiss Irving in middle relief. You’re not going to believe this, but their RAs ranged between 6.85 and 7.94 over a combined 66 innings. Sophomore Thomas Waning will follow Kinker and Michalik in one of Beals’ good traits, which is an affinity for sidearmers; Waning was effective (11 K, 4 W) in a 12 inning injury-shortened debut season. Junior Dustin Jourdan will be in the mix as well.

Beals also has an affinity for lefty specialists, which he will have to cultivate anew from sophomore Andrew Magno (4 appearances in 2016) and true freshman Luke Duermit, Griffan Smith, and Alex Theis.

The schedule is fairly typical, with the opening weekend (starting Friday) featuring a pair of games with both Canisus and UW-Milwaukee in Florida. The following weekend will see the Bucks in Arizona for the Big Ten/Pac-12 Challenge where they’ll play two each against Utah and Oregon State. Another trip to Florida to play low-level opponents (Nicholls State, Southern Miss, and Eastern Michigan) follows, followed by a trip to the Carolinas that will feature two games each against High Point, Coastal Carolina, and UNC-Wilmington.

Bizarrely, the home schedule opens March 16 with a weekend series against Cal St-Northridge; usually any home dates with non-Northern opponents come later in the calendar. Another non-conference weekend series against Georgetown follows, and then Big Ten play: Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Penn St, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, @ Michigan St. Mixed in will be a typically home-heavy mid-week slate (Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Kent St, Ohio University, Miami, Campbell) with road games at Ball St and Cincinnati.

As I wrote the roster outlook (which relied on my own knowledge and guesses but also heavily on the season preview released by the athletic department), two things that I already thought I knew struck me even more plainly.

1) This team does not appear to be very good. One can construct a rosy scenario where the pitching woes of 2017 were due largely to injury, but we’re talking about pitcher injuries. It takes extra tint on those glasses. It has to be better than last year, when nine pitchers started at least three games, but this team was 22-34; “better” isn’t going to cut it.

2) The offense has a couple solid returnees, but in the eighth year of Beals tenure, major positions on the diamond are still being papered over with JUCO transfers. There is no pipeline of young players getting their feet wet in utility roles and transitioning into starting as you would expect in a healthy program. There are no freshman studs to come in and commandeer lineup positions as you would expect in a strong program. It is quite easy to imagine a scenario in which five of the nine lineup spots are held by first or second-year JUCO transfers.

Beals has failed in recruiting, he has failed in player development, and most importantly he has failed to win at the level to which an OSU program should aspire. I’ve devoted many words in previous season previews and recaps (and the hashtag #BealsBall) to his asinine tactics. I won’t rehash that here, but I will end with a quote from the Meet the Team Dinner that program icon Nick Swisher was roped into headlining, which makes one seriously question in what decade Mr. Beals thinks he coaches:

“Our goal in 2018 is to hit a lot of doubles,” said Beals on Saturday night.

Bottoming Out

On June 5, OSU Athletic Director Gene Smith unceremoniously fired Thad Matta, the winningest men’s basketball coach in the history of the school. He did so months after the normal time to fire coaches had passed, and he did so in a way that ensured that the end of Matta’s tenure would be the dominant story in college basketball over the next week. Matta won four regular season Big Ten championships, went to two Final Fours, and was as close to universally respected and beloved by his former players as you will ever find in college basketball. He did all of this while dealing with a debilitating condition that made routine tasks like walking and taking off his shoes a major challenge; it was a side effect of a surgery performed at the university’s own hospital. OSU was coming off a pair of seasons without making the NCAA Tournament, but basketball is a sport in which a roster can get turned around in a hurry, and this author feels that Matta had more than earned another year or two in which to have the opportunity to do just that. Gene Smith felt otherwise.

On May 20, the OSU baseball team lost to Indiana 4-3 at home. This brought an end to a season in which they went 22-34, the school’s worst record since going 6-12 in 1974. They went 8-16 in the Big Ten, the worst showing since going 4-12 in 1987. The season brought Greg Beals’ seven-year record at OSU to 225-167 (.574) and his Big Ten record to 85-83 (.506). Setting aside 2008-2014, a seven-year stretch in which OSU had a .564 W% (since four of the seasons were coached by Beals), the seven-year record is OSU’s worst since 1986-1992. The seven-year stretch in the Big Ten is the worst since 1984-1990 (.486). The Buckeyes finished eleventh in the Big Ten, which in fairness wasn’t possible until the addition of Nebraska, but since the Big Ten eliminated divisions in 1988, the lowest previous conference standing had been seventh (out of 10 in 2010, out of 11 in 2014, out of 13 in 2015).

The OSU season is hardly worth recapping in detail, except to point out that baseball is such that Oregon State could go 56-6 on the year let have one of those losses come to the Buckeyes (February 24, 6-1; the Beavers won a rematch 5-1 two days later). The other noteworthy statistical oddity is that in eight Big Ten series, Ohio won just one (2-1 at Penn State). They were swept once (home against Minnesota) and the other six were all 1-2 for the opposition. The top eight teams in the conference qualify for the tournament; OSU finished four games out of the running, eliminated even before the final weekend.

The Buckeyes’ .393 overall W% and .412 EW% were both eleventh of thirteen Big Ten teams (the forces of darkness led at .724 and .748 respectively), and their .463 PW% was eighth (again, the forces of darkness led with .699). OSU was twelfth with 5.07 R/G and tenth with 6.05 RA/G, although Bill Davis Staidum is a pitcher’s park and those are unadjusted figures. OSU’s .659 DER was last in the conference.

None of this was surprising; OSU lost a tremendous amount of production from 2016, which was Beals’ most successful team, notching his only championship (Big Ten Tournament) and NCAA appearance. With individual exceptions, outside of the 2016 draft class, Beals has failed to recruit and develop talent, often patching his roster with copious amounts of JUCO transfers rather than underclassmen developed in the program. Never was this more acute than in 2017. None of this is meant to be an indictment of the players, who did the best they could to represent their school. It is not their fault that the coach put them in situations that they couldn’t handle or weren’t ready for.

Sophomore catcher Jacob Barnwell had a solid season, hitting .254/.367/.343 for only -1 RAA; his classmate and backup Andrew Fishel only got 50 PA but posted a .400 OBA. First base/DH was a real problem position, as senior Zach Ratcliff was -8 RAA and JUCO transfer junior Bo Coolen chipped in -6; both had secondary averages well below the team average. Noah McGowan, another JUCO transfer started at second (and got time in left as well), with -3 RAA in 162 PA before getting injured. True freshman Noah West followed him into the lineup, but a lack of offense (.213/.278/.303 in 105 PA) gave classmate Connor Pohl a shot. Pohl is 6’5” and his future likely lies at third, but his bat gave a boost to the struggling offense (.325/.386/.450 in 89 PA).

Senior Jalen Washington manned shortstop and acquitted himself fine defensively and at the plate (.266/.309/.468), and was selected by San Diego in the 28th round. Sophomore third baseman Brady Cherry did not build on the power potential his freshman year seemed to show, hitting four homers in 82 more PA than he had when he hit four in 2016. His overall performance (.260/.333/.410) was about average (-2 RAA).

Outfield was definitely the bright spot for the offense, despite getting little production out of JUCO transfer Tyler Cowles (.190/.309/.314 in 129 PA). Senior Shea Murray emerged from a pitching career marred by injuries to provide adequate production and earn the left field job (.252/.331/.449, 0 RAA) and was drafted in the 18th round by Pittsburgh, albeit as a pitcher. Junior center fielder Tre’ Gantt was the team MVP, hitting .314/.426/.426, leading the team with 18 RAA, and was drafted in the 29th round by Cleveland. True freshman right fielder Dominic Canzone was also a key contributor, challenging for the Big Ten batting average lead (.343/.398/.458 for 8 RAA).

On the mound, OSU never even came close to establishing a starting rotation due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Nine pitchers started a game, and only one of them had greater than 50% of his appearances as a starter. That was senior Jake Post, who went 1-7 over 13 starts with a 6.41 eRA. Sophomore lefty Connor Curlis was most effective, starting eight times for +3 RAA with 8.3/2.7 K/W. He tied for team innings lead with classmate Ryan Feltner, who was -13 RAA with a 6.71 eRA. Junior Yianni Pavloupous, the closer a year ago, was -10 RAA over 40 innings between both roles. Junior Adam Niemeyer missed time with injuries, appearing in just ten games (five starts) for -3 RAA over 34 innings. Freshman Jake Vance was rushed into action and allowed 20 runs and walks in 26 innings (-4 RAA). And JUCO transfer Reece Calvert gave up a shocking 39 runs in 39 innings.

I thought the bullpen would be the strength of the team before the season. In the case of Seth Kinker, I was right. The junior slinger was terrific, pitching 58 innings (21 relief appearances, 3 starts) and leading the team by a huge margin with 13 RAA (8.4/2.0 K/W). But the rest of the bullpen was less effective. Junior Kyle Michalik missed much of the season with injuries and wasn’t that effective when on the mound (6.85 RA and just 4.8 K/9 over 22 innings). Senior Joe Stoll did fine in the LOOGY role, something Beals has brought to OSU, with 3 RAA in 23 innings over 25 appearances. Junior Austin Woodby had a 6.00 RA over 33 innings but deserved better with a 4.79 eRA and 5.5/1.8 K/W. The only other reliever to work more than ten innings was freshman sidearmer Thomas Waning (3 runs, 11 K, 4 W over 12 innings). Again, it’s hard to describe the roles because almost everyone was forced to both start and relieve.

It’s too early to hazard a prognosis for 2018, but given the lack of promising performances from young players, it’s hard to be optimistic. What remains to be seen is whether Smith’s ruthlessness can be transferred from coaches who do not deserve it to those who have earned it in spades. No, baseball is not a revenue sport, and no, baseball is not bringing the athletic department broad media exposure. But when properly curated, the OSU baseball program is a top-tier Big Ten program, with the potential to make runs in the NCAA Tournament, and bring in more revenue than most of the “other” 34 programs that are not football or men’s basketball. Neglected in the hands of a failed coach, it is capable of putting up a .333 W% in conference play. Smith, not Beals, is the man who will most directly impact the future success of the program.

Rebuilding a Strip Mall

"Rebuilding", as commonly thrown around in sports discussions, is an interesting term. It inherently implies that something had been built on the same spot previously. It does not, however, give an indication whether what was built there was a blanket fort or the Taj Mahal, a strip mall or the Sears Tower. If one rebuilds on the site of a strip mall, does "re-" imply they are building another strip mall, or might they be building something else?

The baseball program that Greg Beals has presided over for six seasons at The Ohio State University has been much more of a strip mall than a Sears Tower. After his most successful season, which saw OSU tie for third in the Big Ten regular season, win the Big Ten Tournament, and qualify for their first NCAA regional since 2009, Beals is now faced with a rebuilding project in the classic sports sense. Of the nine players with the most PA in 2016, OSU must replace seven, so it would be fair to say that there will be seven new regulars. OSU must also replace two of its three weekend starters; the bullpen is the only area of the roster not decimated by graduation and the draft.

Note: The discussion of potential player roles that follows is my own opinion, informed by my own knowledge of the players and close watching of the program and information released by the SID, particularly the season preview posted here.

Sophomore Jacob Barnwell will almost certainly be the primary catcher; he played sparingly last season (just 29 PA). This is one of the few open positions not due to loss, but rather to a position switch which will be discussed in a moment. Classmate Andrew Fishel (8 PA) will serve as his backup.

First base/DH will be shared by senior Zach Ratcliff, who has flashed power at times during his career but has never earned consistent playing time, and Boo Coolen, a junior Hawaii native who played at Cypress CC in California. Junior Noah McGowan, a transfer from McLennan CC in Texas, would appear to have the inside track at the keystone; his JUCO numbers are impressive but come with obvious caveats. Sophomore Brady Cherry, who got off to a torrid start in 2016 but then cooled precipitously (final line .218/.307/.411 in 143 PA) is likely to play third and bat in the middle of the order. At shortstop, senior captain Jalen Washington moves out from behind the plate to captain the infield; he spent his first two years as a Buckeye as a utility infielder, so it was the move to catcher, not to shortstop that really stands out. Unfortunately, Washington didn’t offer much with the bat as a junior (.249/.331/.343 in 261 PA). Other infield contenders include true freshman shortstop Noah West, redshirt freshman middle infielder Casey Demko, true freshman Conor Pohl at the corners, and redshirt sophomore Nate Romans and redshirt freshman Matt Carpenter in utility roles.

The one thing that appears clear in the outfielder is that junior Tre’ Gantt will take over as center fielder; he struggled offensively last season (.255/.311/.314 in 158 PA). True freshman Dominic Canzone may step in right away in right field, while left field/DH might be split between a pair of transfers. Tyler Cowles, a junior Columbus native who hit well at Sinclair CC in Georgia will attempt to join Coolen and satisfy the Beals’ desperate need for bats with experience and power. Other outfielders include senior former pitcher Shea Murray and little-used redshirt sophomore Ridge Winand.

The pitching staff is slightly more intact, but not much so. Redshirt junior captain Adam Niemeyer will likely be the #1 starter as the only returning weekend starter; his 2016 campaign can be fairly described as average. Sophomore Ryan Feltner was the #4 starter last year and so is a safe bet to pitch on the weekend; his 5.67 eRA was not encouraging but 8 K/3.9 W suggest some raw, harness-able ability. The third spot will apparently go to an erstwhile reliever. Junior Yianni Pavlopoulos was a surprising choice as closer last year, but pitched very well (10.3 K/3.3 W, 3.72 eRA), while senior Jake Post returns from a season wiped out by injury. Neither pitcher has been the picture of health throughout their careers, but Pavlopoulos seems the more likely choice to start. Junior Austin Woodby (7.75 eRA in 39 innings) and sophomore lefty Connor Curlis (six relief innings) will jockey for weekday assignments along with junior JUCO transfer Reece Calvert (a teammate of McGowan) and three true freshmen: lefty Michael McDonough and righties Collin Lollar and Gavin Lyon.

The bullpen will be well-stocked, even assuming Pavlopoulos takes a spot in the rotation. Junior sidearmer Seth Kinker was a workhorse (team-high 38 appearances) and behind departed ace Tanner Tully was arguably Ohio’s most valuable pitcher in 2016. Senior Jake Post will return from a season lost to injury looking to return to a setup role, and junior sidearmer Kyle Michalik pitched well in middle relief last season. These four form a formidable bullpen that will almost certainly be augmented by a lefty specialist, a favorite of Beals. He’ll choose from senior Joe Stoll (twelve unsuccessful appearances), true freshman Andrew Magno, and the favorite in my book is Curlis should be not best Woodby for a starting spot. It appears that sophomore JUCO transfer Thomas Waning (also a sidearmer; one of the few positives about Beals as a coach is his affinity for sidearmers). Other right-handed options for the pen will include junior Dustin Jourdan (a third JUCO transfer from McLennan), sophomore Kent Axcell (making the jump from the club team), and true freshman Jake Vance.

The non-conference schedule is again rather unambitious. The season opens the weekend of February 17 in central Florida with neutral site games against Kansas State (two), Delaware, and Pitt. Two games each against Utah and Oregon State in Arizona will follow as part of the Big Ten/Pac 12 challenge. The Bucks will then play true road series in successive weekends against Campbell and Florida Gulf Coast, then play midweek neutral site games in Port Charlotte, FL against Lehigh and Bucknell. The home schedule opens March 17 with a weekend series against Xavier (the Sunday finale being played in at XU), and the next two weekends see the Buckeyes open Big Ten play by hosting Minnesota and Purdue.

Subsequent weekend series are at Penn State, at Michigan State, home against UNC-Greensboro, home against Nebraska, at the forces of evil, at Iowa, and home against Indiana. Midweek opponents are Youngstown State, OU, Kent State, Cincinnati, Eastern Michigan, Northern Kentucky, Texas Tech (two), Bowling Green, Ball State, and Toledo, all at home, giving OSU 28 scheduled home dates.

Should OSU finish in the top eight in the Big Ten, the Big Ten Tournament is shifting from the recent minor league/MLB/CWS venues (including Huntington Park in Columbus, Target Field, and TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha) to campus sites, although scheduled in advance instead of at the home park of the regular season champ as was the case for many years in the past. This year’s tournament will be in Bloomington, and it speaks to both the volume of players lost and Beals’ uninspiring record that participation in this event should not be taken for granted.

The Good News Is...

The good news is that OSU baseball had its most successful season under coach Greg Beals. The Buckeyes qualified for the NCAA Tournament and won a Big Ten title of any kind (tournament or regular season) for the first time since 2009 and won the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 2007. Six Buckeyes were drafted, the most since 1998.

That’s the good news, and it is legitimately good news. The bad news is they finished third in their NCAA regional, knocked out by an in-state foe with no particular history of being a quality baseball program (Wright State); the six drafted players are part of a mass exodus of talent that will leave the 2017 team with little returning production; and the relative success of the season should solidify Beals’ position.

I am not the type of fan that roots for my team to lose because I think that they would be better off if the coach was fired, or other similar reasoning (given the perverse incentives created by pro sports drafts, it may some times be in the team’s best interest to lose, but that never applies to college sports). So the last bit of bad news is worth it given a new trophy for the case. Nevertheless, it remains a cost associated with the season.

At first, it did not appear as if this would be the best season of Beals’ tenure. While OSU embarked on Big Ten play with a 12-6-1 record, it was not particularly impressive given the quality of competition. OSU took two out of three at home from Northwestern in the first Big Ten series, needing a come-from-behind walkoff homer to pull the series out on Sunday (Northwestern would finish twelfth in the Big Ten at 7-17). The Bucks were then swept at Maryland, won a home series against Rutgers and lost a series at Illinois to sit at 5-7 halfway through the Big Ten schedule.

Both road series featured memorable losses. In the second game against Maryland, John Havird took a no-hitter into the ninth, but was pulled with a 1-0 leading and 98 pitches after plunking the leadoff hitter. Maryland pushed across the run without the benefit of a hit, giving OSU a combined nine no-hit innings, but two hits lead to a Terrapin run in the tenth and a 2-1 loss. The opener against Illinois wound up as a 1-0 loss in fifteen innings on a wild pitch, in a game in which Illini starter (and future Baltimore first rounder) Cody Sedlock was allowed to make 132 pitches in 10 2/3 innings (one of Beals’ redeeming qualities as a coach is that he rarely pushes the envelope with his pitchers--Tanner Tully was done after 9 and 106 pitches).

The Buckeyes opened the second half with a sweep of hapless (2-22) Purdue, then won a home series from Iowa and swept Michigan at home to get to 13-8, technically still alive in the conference race heading into the finale at Minnesota (first place at 15-5). The Buckeyes won two out of three, finishing 1.5 games behind the Gophers and 1 behind Nebraska, tied for third with Indiana. At this point it could be noted that OSU had a favorable Big Ten schedule; only three of the thirteen teams finished under .500 in conference play, and OSU played all of them (Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers), while not playing Nebraska or Indiana.

The Buckeyes opened the tournament with a win over Michigan, but melted down in the ninth inning against Iowa by coughing up a 4-0 lead before losing in ten. Their next contest with Michigan was delayed by weather, forcing the Buckeyes to beat both Michigan and Michigan State on Saturday to stay alive. On Sunday morning, the Buckeyes beat MSU again to claw back through the loser’s bracket, into the winner-take-all final against Iowa that afternoon. The Bucks led 7-4 going into the eighth, but Iowa scored three to tie it. This time, OSU would answer with a run in the ninth and hold on for an 8-7 win to cap a remarkable two days of baseball with a long overdue championship.

OSU was made a #2 seed of the NCAA Tournament, but was deemed one of the weaker #2s and placed in a bracket with #2 national seed Louisville, #3 seed Wright State, and #4 seed Western Michigan. In a recurring tournament theme of losing leads, the Buckeyes opened up 5-0 on the Raiders through three before allowing two in the fourth and four in the fifth. WSU’s 6-5 lead held until the Buckeyes rallied for two in the ninth and a 7-6 win. Alas, Louisville’s offense proved too potent, burying the Bucks 15-3, and WSU extracted revenge with a 7-3 win that ended OSU’s season at 44-20-1.

OSU lead the Big Ten (all games) in W% at .688, was a close third in EW% at .676 (Minnesota led with .685), and was second in PW% (.679 to Minnesota’s .728). OSU had a balanced team, finishing third with 5.83 R/G and fourth with 3.98 RA/G (although it should be noted that Bill Davis Stadium appears to be a solid pitcher’s park). OSU was not a strong fielding team, with a .951 mFA compared to a conference average of .946, and more importantly a below-average DER (.675 to .681 average).

OSU’s offense was power-driven, leading the conference with 57 homers and a .151 ISO and a slightly above-average .348 OBA. Beals rode junior catcher Jalen Washington hard; Washington appeared in 63 of 65 games and created 4.3 RG. Junior Jacob Bosiokovic bounced back from injuries as the primary first baseman, creating 5.9 RG on the strength of power (11 homers, .213 ISO) rather than on base skills (.335 OBA). He was drafted by Colorado in the 19th round. Troy Kuhn settled back in at second base, but had his worst offensive season of three as a starter as a senior (just 4.3 RG). L Grant Davis struggled mightily at the plate (.194/.257/.256 in 151 PA), requiring OSU to sacrifice defense for offense at the keystone.

Nick Sergakis was third on OSU with 13 homers and was second on the team with 8.8 RG and +26 RAA with a .332/.420/.542 line, enough to be a 23rd selection by the Mets (Sergakis played three years at OSU after transferring from this year’s national champions, Coastal Carolina). Shortstop Craig Nennig, who Beals’ refusal to pinch-hit for was a running frustration of mine, made that less of an issue by turning in the best offensive season of his career, although .256/.313/.366 on the strength of five longballs hardly erased any concerns about production.

The outfield was led by junior Ronnie Dawson, who while productive in his first two years really played up to his potential with a team-high 13 homer, 9.3 RG, +32 RAA, .331/.415/.611 season that netted him several All-America honors and a second-round selection by Houston. Classmate Troy Montgomery had a fine season in center, hitting .297/.420/.466 for 7.7 RG and +20 RAA and was drafted in the 8th round by the Angels. Right field was filled by a combination of Bosiokovic and sophomore Tre’ Gantt, who couldn’t match the production from his freshman season (.255/.311/.314 for 3.6 RG in 158 PA).

Freshman Brady Cherry started the year on fire at DH with five homers, but settled into a .218/.307/.411 performance over 143. Senior Ryan Leffel (.205/.283/.301 in 96 PA) took some of his playing time as the year went on. Zach Ratcliff hit better than them early (.268/.362/.341 in 52 PA), but an injury ultimately resulted in a medical redshirt.

The pitching staff was anchored by junior Tanner Tully, who continued to be the perfect image of a finesse lefty with a 3.18 RA, 3.31 eRA, 1.9 W/9, 6.5 K/9, +19 RAA over 108 innings season. Tully was picked by Cleveland in the 26th round. Senior John Havird made it two lefties at the top of the rotation, pitching solidly (4.50 RA and +2 RAA, but 3.91 eRA and 5.8 K/1.5 W in 94 innings). Sophomore Adam Niemeyer was the #3, with similar results to Havird (4.56 RA for +1 RAA, 4.37 eRA, 8.9 K/1.5 W in 71 innings). As you can see, the strength of OSU’s starters was avoiding free passes. Freshman Ryan Feltner was the most frequent mid-week starter (11 starts out of 20 appearances) and wasn’t bad for a freshman (4.72 RA for 0 RAA, 5.67 eRA, 8.0 K/3.9 W in 69 innings). Senior transfer lefty Dalton Mosbarger got a few mid-week, limited inning starts (5 of 13 appearances) and was effective (3.31 RA for +5 RAA, 4.11 eRA, 8.3 K/4.1 W in 33 innings, in addition to his 35 PA as a reserve outfielder). Sophomore transfer Austin Woody rounded out the starters (3 of 19 appearances, 6.92 RA for -10 RAA, 7.75 eRA, 6.7 K/4.2 W in 39 innings).

OSU’s bullpen was terrific, with four key relievers chipping in. Sophomore Yianni Pavlopoulos was closer out of the gate despite just nine career innings and a medical redshirt in 2015, and recorded 14 saves and solid performance numbers (3.03 RA, 3.72 eRA, 10.3 K/3.3 W in 30 innings). Sidearm sophomore Seth Kinker was the workhorse, making 38 appearances and pitching great (1.98 RA for +17 RAA, 3.27 eRA, 7.4 K/1.6 W over 55 innings). Senior Michael Horejsei’s LOOGY role expanded a little, but not too extensively, working 31 innings in 34 appearances with a 3.19 RA, and excellent 1.93 eRA and 11.3 K/2.6 W). His selection in the 21st round by the White Sox as a situational reliever capped a remarkable career arc for a pitcher who began his college career at a regional campus (OSU-Mansfield) and had just 26 career innings entering 2016. Finally, sophomore Kyle Michalik chipped in +9 RA with a 2.25 RA, 2.29 eRA, 5.1 K/1.4 W performance over 32 innings, but was definitely fourth on Beals’ bullpen pecking order. Other pitchers who saw action include junior Joe Stoll and freshman Conor Curlis, who will presumably compete for the LOOGY role next year.

While 2016 was a measured success, the outlook for 2017 is murkier. OSU had a total of 84 offensive RAA contributed by individuals--83 of those contributed by non-returning players (1B Bosikovic, 3B Sergakis, LF Dawson, CF Montgomery). Additionally, OSU must replace Kuhn at second, Nennig at short (who was a very good fielder, at least to this observer’s eyes), and Leffel at utility/DH. It will essentially be a new offense and it will lack any proven plus performers. The rotation will lose two of its top three, but profiles as a more likely strength with Niemeyer and Feltner as two obvious members. To the extent that college bullpens can be predicted, OSU is well-positioned for 2017.

However, my concerns regarding player development were only slightly allayed, and Beals’ tactics may have been toned down a little bit (even he could see that he had power and should probably give away fewer outs on the bases), but one season does not a program make. It’s a positive step, at least, which is more than can be said for most of the previous seasons of Beals’ tenure. And that’s the good news.

Running With the Devil (You Know)

Greg Beals enters his sixth season at the helm of an OSU baseball program going that, by multiple common sense measures, is suffering through a rough period that corresponds closely to his tenure as coach. OSU’s six-year NCAA Tournament drought is the program’s longest since 1983-1990. OSU’s five-year record of 159-125 (.560) is the program’s worst since 1986-1990 (.500), except for the overlapping period of 2010-2014 (.543). In addition to the bottom line of wins and losses, Beals teams have displayed a propensity for late-season collapses and a recurring theme of horrific baserunning that I used to try to document but now have lost the strength (and frequent trips to Bill Davis Stadium to see the Bucks play in person). Suffice it to say some must be seen to be believed, and the hashtag #BealsBall will give you a taste of what is being taught in Columbus.

Despite his mediocre record, Beals received a two-year contract extension through 2017 after the season as reported by B1G Baseball. Ordinarily, I would hope that this was a “program continuity” contract, granted with the knowledge that having a lame duck collegiate coach can be a major obstacle in recruiting. However, given that Beals already skippered 2015 without a contract, two years in writing has more of the feel of an actual extension.

Regardless of my own reservations about the man in charge, the players on the field deserve the bulk of the attention. But while OSU returns a large senior class, on paper this team does not strike me as an obvious Big Ten championship contender or NCAA Tournament team.

One spot where virtually no experience returns is catcher. Co-starters Aaron Gretz and Conor Sabanosh both graduated, leaving junior captain Jalen Washington as the backstop. Washington’s limited playing time over the past two seasons has been mostly as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement at second base. Thirty-three plate appearances are insufficient to make any conclusions regarding his offense, but they have been middling BA, no secondary average PA. Washington will be backed up by freshman Jacob Barnwell and sophomore Jordan McDonough. The latter is more likely to get in the lineup as a DH than as a catcher, however. Freshman Andrew Fishel rounds out the corps.

First base will be up for grabs between a pair of seniors, Zach Ratcliff and Ryan Leffel. Ratcliff has always teased with power potential that the lineup could desperately use, but has never been able to find his way into the lineup on a consistent basis (career .263/.304/.403 line in 199 PA). Leffel can play third base and has always found his way into the lineup. His junior season was rough (.211/.333/.267 in 107 PA), but his sophomore season was of Beals’ dreams (.303/.369/.343 in 110 PA). I will personally be surprised if Leffel does not get the lion’s share of time at first.

The rest of the infield positions will be in the hands of multi-year senior starters. Second base will belong to Nick Sergakis, who in his two-year OSU career has hit .281/.358/.364 in 357 PA with questionable fielding. At third, Troy Kuhn is a .275/.362/.469 career hitter in 543 PA. Shortstop Craig Nennig is a slick fielder, but for some reason rarely gets pinch-hit for despite a .235/.314/.280 line in 401 PA. In the case of injuries to any of the three, expect Sergakis to slide into the open spot and senior L Grant Davis to play at second. Davis was surprisingly good offensively last year (.282/.347/.353 in 95 PA) and should make a fine utility infielder. Other infield reserves include true freshmen Brady Cherry at third, Casey Demko in the middle, and Matt Carpenter.

The team’s only legitimate power threat is junior left fielder (and erstwhile center fielder) Ronnie Dawson (.307/.379/.460 with 11 homers in 469 career PA). Dawson is prone to some baserunning blunders and outfield adventures, but still is by far the most exciting player on the roster. Junior center fielder Troy Montgomery is the leadoff hitter and had a fantastic sophomore season (.317/.431/.493 with 35 steals in 41 attempts). Right field must replace Pat Porter, drafted by the White Sox, and a platoon of junior Jacob Bosiokovic and senior Daulton Mosbarger is expected (for positions in which newcomers will play, I relied on the season preview released by the athletic department for guidance on what to expect). Bosiokovic had a promising freshmen season in 2013 as a third baseman, held his ground as a sophomore, but got a medical redshirt last year after appearing in just five games. He will also be an option at first base and with a career line of .264/.341/.360 in 421 PA, a return to health would be a boost to the Buckeye offense. Mosbarger is a senior transfer from Akron, where he was a career .247/.366/.359 hitter in 465 PA. He may be an interesting case study in whether great patience can survive Beals’ preference for a contact-oriented approach.

The key reserve outfielders are speedy sophomore Tre’ Gantt (a promising .311/.373/351 in 82 PA in 2015) and senior Jake Brobst (who has served mostly as a pinch-runner in his OSU career). Redshirt freshman Ridge Winand and true freshman Jacob Vander Wal (yes, he is the son of John) are also on the roster. DH starts could go to McDonough, Leffel/Ratcliff, Bosiokovic/Mosbarger, Gantt, or even Davis, but I think Beals will have a hard time keeping Gantt out of the lineup, even if he may not be a prototypical DH.

OSU should be able to muster a decent offense, led by Dawson and Montgomery with solid contributors in Kuhn, Sergakis, and the right field/DH units. But catcher, first base, and shortstop will likely hold the offense back from scoring runs at a championship level. And a strong lineup may be needed because questions abound on the pitching staff.

OSU lost its two best pitchers, Ryan Riga to graduation and Travis Lakins to the Red Sox, leaving junior lefty Tanner Tully, a soft-tosser who rode a 5.1/.7 K/W to a great freshman season (3.20 eRA) but was hit hard last year (5.3/1.8 with a 5.75 eRA and .345 BABIP) as the #1 starter. While it is safe to assume that Tully’s true level is somewhere in the middle, it does not appear to be the profile of a #1 starter for a conference champion. Sophomore righty Adam Niemeyer is penciled in at #2. He worked 33 innings over 12 appearances (4 starts) as a redshirt freshman, with 5.7/1.9 K/W and a 3.79 eRA. The #3 spot (and thus the one or two mid-week starter positions) is up for grabs, with next to no returning experience in the mix. Senior lefty John Havird was solid in 27 innings (mostly in relief) last year, with 9.8/3.6 K/W and a 4.17 eRA. Sophomore right Austin Woodby transferred from Cincinnati, where he had an uninspiring freshman season in 2014 (20 K/7 W in 33 IP with a 5.18 ERA). Redshirt sophomore right Yianni Pavlopoulos threw nine innings of relief for the Bucks in 2014, and the other contender is true freshman righty Ryan Feltner. Starting pitching is a definite area of concern.

The bullpen lost closer Trace Dempsey, and while senior Jake Post is listed on the roster, his injury at the end of 2015 plus his omission from OSU’s season preview suggests a medical redshirt is in the cards. Without Post, OSU’s bullpen is also a near-complete rebuild job from 2015. The three key right-handers are junior Shea Murray, who throws hard but has yet to harness his control (career 13 K/10 W in just 10 IP); sophomore Seth Kinker, a three-quarter slinger who had a promising freshman campaign (19 K/3 W, 2.84 eRA in 22 IP); and sophomore Kyle Michalik, who was passed by Kinker on Beals’ pecking order as 2015 progressed despite also pitching effectively (12 K/5 W, 2.92 eRA in 19 IP).

Beals is a strong believe in left-right matchups out of the pen, which means he will rely on some combination of senior Michael Horejsei (career 5.67 ERA despite 23 K/7 W in 27 IP), redshirt junior Joe Stoll (zero career appearances), and true freshman Connor Curlis to get outs. Other bullpen options include sophomore righty Curtiss Irving off a medical redshirt season and possible two-way performers Bosiokovic (who has never pitched for OSU), Mosbarger (who has pitched for Akron with a bizarre career line of 23 K/27 W but a 1.99 ERA in 31 innings), and Cherry.

The Buckeyes’ schedule appears to be designed to pad the win total early in the season as no strong non-conference foes are on the preseason schedule, and unlike prior years which have mid-conference season matchups against the likes of Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Oregon, OSU will not challenge national powers during the Big Ten campaign. The Buckeyes travel to the old Dodgertown to open the season the weekend of February 19 with games against Toledo (to open and close the weekend), Niagra, and Pitt. The following weekend, OSU competes in Coastal Carolina’s tournament with a pair of games against the hosts plus matchups with Duke and Liberty. The first weekend of March will see OSU in Port Charlotte to play another set of middling northern opponents (Seton Hall, Illinois St., and Boston College). The Buckeyes will then play four games at UNLV to return the Runnin’ Rebels 2015 trip to Columbus before the home opening series, three games with Hofstra the weekend of March 18.

From there, weekend series are mostly Big Ten: Northwestern, out-of-conference against Bethune-Cookman, @ Maryland, Rutgers, @ Illinois, @ Purdue, Iowa, the forces of evil, @ Minnesota. Mid-week opponents include home dates with Xavier, Toledo, Morehead State (two), Cincinnati, UAB (two), Florida Atlantic (two), and Eastern Michigan, along with road trips to Ohio University and Kent State.

The schedule seems to reflect where the program is right now--a middling northern program not eager to take on challenges outside of the Big Ten schedule. While such a strategy is perfectly defensible, even if the program is strong, it is a contrast to the bluster of national contention that peppered the early days of Beals’ tenure. The Buckeyes need only to finish in the top eight of a thirteen-team Big Ten (Wisconsin remains a pathetic, cowardly, contemptible institution) to get to Omaha…for the Big Ten Torunament. That should (better) be attainable, but getting back to Omaha several weeks later seems as far away as it has ever been for what was once (and could be again) a northern baseball power.

Collapse, pt. 2

For the second time in three years, OSU baseball entered May in excellent position to secure the program's first NCAA tournament berth since 2009, projected as a #2 seed with an outside shot of earning a #1 and hosting a regional. For the second time in three years, it all came crashing down around hapless coach Greg Beals. This one was even tougher to swallow. In 2013, the crash mostly came in non-conference games against tough national opponents (Georgia Tech, Louisville, Oregon), and the Buckeyes still came close to a share of the Big Ten title. In 2015, OSU tumbled down the Big Ten standings, losing eight of their final nine conference games to fall to seventh in the league.

Despite this catastrophic failure, the stagnation of the program under Beals' stewardship, and the expiration of his inital contract, it appears as if Beals will be invited back for a sixth season leading the OSU baseball program. Under previous coach Bob Todd, the Buckeyes and Minnesota duked it out for conference supremacy, a veritable big two and little eight on the diamond. While Todd's program slipped a bit near the end of his tenure, he still made semi-annual NCAA appearances and captured a final regular season crown in 2009. Under Beals, OSU has clearly fallen behind at least Indiana, Illinois, and newcomers Nebraska and Maryland in the Big Ten pecking order.

The Big Ten got five teams into the NCAA Tournament: Indiana, Iowa, the forces of evil, Maryland, and Illinois, with the latter two winning their regionals. But the overall performance of conference teams only adds to the frustration for OSU supporters, as the Bucks finished 35-19 (.648), third in the Big Ten (Illinois led at 50-10, .833). In EW%, OSU was fifth at .636 (Illinois led at .783), and in PW% OSU was third at .643 (again, the Illini led at .748). OSU tied for fourth with 5.63 runs/game against a conference average of 5.36 and sixth with 4.22 RA/game against an average of 4.87.

OSU's offense was paced by its outfield, with the three primary starters ranking 1-2-3 on the team in RAA. Sophomore left fielder Ronnie Dawson took a step back from his debut campaign, but still hit .279/.357/.465, ranked second on the team with 7 longballs, and created 6.3 RG for +9 RAA. Classmate leadoff man and center fielder Troy Montgomery broke out in a big way, hitting .317/.424/.493 for 8.7 RG and +22 RAA. And senior right fielder Pat Porter played himself into being a fifteenth round pick of Houston with a bounceback .338/.414/.576, eleven homer, 9.4 RG, +25 RAA season that also saw him set the school's career triples record.

The platoon of senior catchers Aaron Gretz and Conor Sabanosh was fairly effective, with 176 and 189 PA respectively, Gretz created 6.1 runs/game and +5 RAA, Sabanosh 5.0 and +1, although it once again mystified this observer that Beals showed a degree favoritism towards Sabanosh in doling out playing time. First base was a major weakness. Jacob Bosiokovic missed most of the season, taking one option out of play. Junior Ryan Leffel struggled at the plate, hitting .211/.304/.267 for 3.3 RG and -4 RAA in 109 PA, while classmate Zach Ratcliff hit well (7.1 RG) in limited opportunities (64 PA). Eventually junior Troy Kuhn saw time at first after starting the season at the hot corner, and was Ohio's most productive infielder with 5.4 RG for +2 RAA in 187 PA.

After Kuhn shifted across, the diamond, junior second baseman Nick Sergakis moved to third. Sergakis did not reprise his strong 2014 campaign with a .250/.320/.330, 4.3 RG, -3 RAA season. Sophomore L Grant Davis plugged in at second, hitting .282/.320/.353, 4.7 RG, -1 RAA over 102 PA. And an early hot streak kept junior Craig Nennig from a third straight dismal offensive performance, but he still only hit .266/.327/.330 for 4.3 RG and -3 RAA.

There was no regular DH, so the only other Buckeye who got more than 50 PA was freshman outfielder Tre' Gantt, who showed promise with speed and a .311/.378/.351, 5.6 RG, +2 RAA performance over 85 PA--he should be a shoe-in for the vacant outfield spot. Freshman catcher/DH/pinch-hitter Jordan McDonough showed some gap power with six doubles in 41 PA (4.7 RG). Sophomore IF/C Jalen Washington and junior OF Jake Brobst served mostly in pinch-running roles, combining for just 37 PA.

OSU's starting pitching was solid, but that's about the strongest praise that can be offered. Sophomore lefty Tanner Tully was slotted as the #1 but not surprisingly took a big step back from his Freshman of the Year campaign with a 5.04 RA (and even more distressing 5.75 eRA) and -3 RAA over 75 innings. His strikeout rate ticked up from 5.1 to 5.3, which tells much of the story. Sophomore Travis Lakins moved into the rotation but was just average (4.78 RA for -1 RAA with a similar eRA in 96 innings), but clearly was the best mound prospect on the team and was draft eligible, signing with Boston after being a sixth round pick. Senior Ryan Riga was OSU's best pitcher and was drafted in the thirteen round by the White Sox after positing a 3.38 RA for +12 RAA over 97 innings).

Freshman Jacob Niggemeyer got the most mid-week starting assignments with seven, but will need to improve on a 4.09 RA, 5.35 eRA, and 4.1 K/9 performance to be a strong candidate for weekend starts in 2016. Redshirt freshman Adam Niemeyer worked in something of a long relief role, pitching 33 innings over 12 appearances (4 starts) with a 2.16 RA and 3.79 eRA for +9 RAA to rank second to Riga on the team. Junior lefty John Havird (3.58 RA, 4.17 eRA in 27 innings) will also be in that mix.

The Buckeye bullpen struggled immensely, particularly down the stretch and in the Big Ten Tournament. In the last regular season weekend at Indiana, the bullpen failed to hold a 4-3 eighth inning lead in the opener, then surrendered two runs with the game tied in the eighth in the finale. In the Tournament, closer Trace Dempsey yielded a two-out, two-strike homer in the opener against Iowa that turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 loss. Scarred by the experience, Beals stuck with his ace Riga in the eighth inning of a 2-2 elimination game against the Hoosiers; they struck for three and ended OSU's season, 5-3.

Dempsey's senior season saw him once again unable to catch his sophomore lightning in a bottle--he was average but not brilliant (4.46 RA, 3.98 eRA, +1 RAA, with 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 W/9, the latter a marked improvement from 4.9 in 2014). The rest of the pen was weakened by a late season injury to junior Jake Post, who was the best Buckeye reliever with a 3.03 RA, 4.05 eRA, +6 RAA over 29 innings. Freshman Seth Kinker pitched well (2.82 RA with similar eRA for +5 RAA, 7.7 K/1.2 W over 22 innings0 and marks a continuation of one of the few positives of Beals' style--a fondness for relievers with less than over-the-top deliveries. As the season progressed Kinker took some high leverage work away from redshirt freshman Kyle Michalik, who pitched better than his traditional stats might indicate, albeit in only 19 innings (5.21 RA but 2.92 eRA). Senior Michael Horejsei really only had his left-handedness to offer him as a key reliever, ranking second to Dempsey with 19 appearances but tossing just 14 1/3 innings with a 6.91 RA and 5.57 eRA. Redshirt sophomore Shea Murray came back from an arm injury to throw seven ineffective but exciting innings (7.04 RA, 4.7 W, 14.1 K); his stuff was good enough for Texas to take a flier on him in the 39th round.

As far as the state of the program goes, there's really nothing to be said that I haven't already. Perhaps one could credit Beals for some apparent development by offensive players (Montgomery in particular comes to mind), but his track record in that regard is still quite sketchy. The dreadful baserunning and bizarre infatuation with the runners at the corners, two out double steal show no sign of abating, the late season collapse is fast becoming a staple, and while a 35-20 record doesn't look so bad, Beals' five-year body of work is 159-125 (.560), the program's worst stretch of that length since 1986-1990 (.500), except for the overlapping 2010-2014 period (.543). The same holds true for conference play where Beals is 49-47 (.510). The six-year NCAA Tournament drought is the longest since OSU went eight years without qualifying 1983-1990. It's time for OSU to once again have a baseball program its football and basketball programs can be proud of, and it seems likely that someone other than Beals would be best positioned to make that happen.

Losing Ground

OSU baseball enters 2015 coming off of one its worst seasons in decades. The Buckeyes went 10-14 in the Big Ten, their worst record since 1987, a record fueled by a seven-game Big Ten losing streak (longest since 1987). Their 5-12 road record was the worst since 1972. In 1988, Bob Todd took over as Buckeye head coach and wasted little time in turning the program around, turning 1987’s 19-27 overall, 4-12 B10 record into a 32-28, 16-12 team. Todd would go on to reign over the program for 22 more seasons which served as the second golden age of OSU hardball (13 NCAA appearances, 13 seasons with either a Big Ten regular season or tournament title).

Unlike 1988, 2015 will not follow a dismal showing with a new regime. Todd’s replacement, Greg Beals, enters his fifth season at the helm and needs to turn things around in order to secure his long-term status as OSU coach. He will attempt to do so with a team that has elicited a wide range of preseason prognostications, one from which a sheer performance and player development track record does not appear to be impressive but which some observers insist has a surfeit of potential.

Beals has been fond of catcher platoons and has never given senior Aaron Gretz the job on a full-time basis despite him appearing to be the best option. Gretz will once again share time behind the plate with fellow senior Conor Sabanosh, a JUCO transfer in his second season as a Buck. Both hit fairly well last season and may get at bats at DH as well. Sophomore Jalen Washington and freshman Jordan McDonough will serve as depth.

First base is an open position and may see three juniors rotate through the spot: Zach Ratcliff, Mark Leffel, and Jacob Bosiokovic. Ratcliff is limited to first defensively, but Leffel also is capable of playing third and Bosiokovic will be an option in all four corners. Each has shown flashes of being productive hitters (Leffel more as a hitter for average, the other two for power potential), but none has clearly emerged to grab the spot.

Second base will go to junior Nick Sergakis. Sergakis transferred from Coastal Carolina prior to 2014 and started the season on the bench before an injury to shortstop Craig Nennig pushed him into the lineup. Sergakis was a revelation as one of the team’s most productive hitters (and lead off despite the team’s lowest walk rate). Nennig, a junior, should be back and will play short, but while his fielding draws rave reviews he has yet to demonstrate any ability to hit (.201/.295/.225 in about 190 career PA). Nennig’s offense will make sliding Sergakis back to short a tempting option for Beals.

At third base, junior Troy Kuhn will start. He spent most of 2014 as the second baseman before being displaced for Sergakis upon Nennig’s return. Kuhn was among the team’s most productive hitters and paced OSU with six longballs, so he will be a key part of the lineup again and could move back to second if Nennig struggles. In that case, Bosiokovic and Leffel could play third. The infield backups will include the aforementioned Washington (that rare catcher/second baseman) as well as sophomore L Grant Davis (a transfer from Arizona State) and freshman Nate Romans.

The outfield should be one of Ohio’s strengths. Sophomore left fielder Ronnie Dawson was as fun of a hitter to watch as OSU has had in years and was the team’s best hitter in 2014 (.337/.385/.454). Sophomore center fielder Troy Montgomery was highly touted but did not impress in his debut (.235/.297/.353). Senior right fielder Pat Porter (obligatory mention that he hails from my hometown) had a very disappointing season, but rebounded to have a strong summer campaign and will likely be penciled in as the #3 hitter. Bosiokovic can play either corner and junior Jake Brobst has served mostly as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. A pair of freshman, Tre’ Gantt (a speedster from Indiana in the mold of Montgomery) and Ridge Winand will complete the depth chart. The DH spot will most likely be filled by the odd men out at catcher and first base.

OSU’s #1 starter, at least to open the season, will be sophomore Tanner Tully, the Big Ten freshman of the year in 2014. Tully’s smoke and mirrors act featured a vanishingly low walk rate (.7 W/9) and low K rate (5.3 K/9) which scream regression even in northern college baseball. Senior lefty Ryan Riga will look to bounce back from an injury-riddled campaign--he and Tully are fairly similar stylistically so it would not surprise to see them split up with Travis Lakins taking the #2 rotation spot. Lakins is a sophomore who should be the easy favorite to be the ace at the end of the season; his talents were wasted somewhat in the bullpen in 2014, fanning 9.0 per nine and leading the pitchers with +12 RAA. Lakins is draft-eligible and barring injury this should be his last season in Columbus.

Junior Jake Post is a 6-2 righty with decent stuff who has yet to find consistent effectiveness but would my bet would be that he will displace Riga or Tully by mid-season. Other starting options are lefty John Havrid, a JUCO transfer from Mesa Community College and freshman Jacob Niggemeyer, a 28th-round pick of the Cubs.

The bullpen will be anchored by senior slinger Trace Dempsey, who may well become OSU’s all-time saves leader but had a rough 2014 (-7 RAA) after a brilliant 2013 (+13). Dempsey’s control abandoned him last year, drawing comparisons to another erstwhile Buckeye closer, Rory Meister. Past Dempsey the bullpen work is largely up for grabs--Lakins was the star last year and will be starting. It is possible that a pitcher like Post could be used as the setup man, foregoing some mid-week wins for conference bullpen depth.

Otherwise, redshirt freshman Adam Niemeyer looks like the key setup man--his true freshman campaign was limited to just three appearances due to injury. Otherwise, I won’t even hazard to guess who will emerge out of the following possibilities other than to note that Beals allows tries to cultivate at least one lefty specialist in his pen:

RHP: Curtiss Irving (SM), Seth Kinker (FM), Brennan Milby (R-FM), Shea Murray (SM), Kyle Michalik (R-FM), Yianni Pavlopoulos (SM)
LHP: Michael Horejsei (JR), Matt Panek (JR), Joe Stoll (SM)

Beals appears to have instituted a shift in scheduling philosophy, opting for more weekend series over multi-team “classics”/pseudo-tournaments. The Buckeyes’ only of the latter will be this weekend as they face George Mason, St. Louis, and Pitt in the Snowbird Classic in Port Charlotte. Subsequent weekends will include three game series at Florida Atlantic, UAB, and Western Kentucky before the home opener March 10 against Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne.

The following weekend the Buckeyes will host Evansville for a three game series, Rider for a two-game mid-week series, and open Big Ten play March 20 hosting Michigan State. Subsequent weekends will see OSU at Rutgers, home to Penn State and UNLV (the latter non-conference of course), at Nebraska and Northwestern, home to Illinois and Maryland, and at Indiana. The mid-week slate will include home games against Toledo, Akron, Ohio University, Dayton, Kent State, Louisville, and Morehead State and trips to Miami, Cincinnati, and Youngstown State.

There is wide variety of opinion regarding OSU’s 2015 outlook. Perfect Game tabbed them as the #35 team in the country while Collegiate Baseball picks them tenth out of thirteen (with the addition of Maryland and Rutgers) in the Big Ten, which would see OSU miss the eight-team field for the Big Ten Tournament, to be held at Target Field May 21-24.

I tend to side much more closely to Collegiate Baseball’s view than Perfect Game’s. Aside from a second-place Big Ten finish in 2013, Beals’ teams have yet to live up to the hype that his recruiting has generated. Beals’ players do not seem to have developed according to expectations--in early years many of the key players were transfers rather than high school recruits, and there have yet to been many high producers among his high school crops, especially at the plate. And I have written many times about the horrific baserunning and other tactics employs by Beals. There are teams of fifth-graders that consistently make better decisions than Beals’ crew.

What has been particularly disturbing to watch as a fan of the program is that while the rest of the Big Ten has improved (Baseball America predicts that Illinois, Maryland, M*ch*g*n and Nebraska will all qualify for the NCAA Tournament, which would be a record for the conference), OSU has slid into irrelevancy--even with in the northern baseball picture. While Todd’s program was slipping from its heights near the end, he still managed to qualify for the NCAAs every other year. Beals has yet to make a NCAA Tournament appearance, and a sixth straight season (fifth under Beals) on the outside looking in would only extend OSU’s longest drought since 1983-1990 (once Todd led his team to a first tournament in 1991, he never again fell short in consecutive seasons). If OSU does not play up to the level of the optimists, then the program change that I would have liked to see after 2014 may be a fait accompli.

This House is Falling Apart

On May 4, Ohio State was suffering its worst ever loss in the eighteen-year history of Bill Davis Stadium, trailing Iowa 17-2. Only once had OSU lost a home game by a larger margin than the fifteen that they would wind up losing the game by--and that was in 1899. On two other occasions OSU had lost a home game by fifteen runs (to add insult to injury, both were against Michigan, in 1934 and 1989).

The music choice on the PA was unintentionally appropriate. Although ostensibly an upbeat song by an Ohio band, Walk the Moon’s “Anna Sun” features the infectious chorus:

What do you know? This house is falling apart
What can I say? This house is falling apart
We got no money, but we got heart
We’re gonna rattle this ghost town
This house is falling apart

I found it quite apropos for the moment, because the house that is the OSU baseball program is falling apart under the direction of Coach Greg Beals, and the historic home beatdown was the nadir of the season.

Or was it? Beals’ tactics present any number of other crazy stupid baserunning events that encapsulate a program being run by a coach with the mind of a junior high coach more concerned with winning games than teaching kids how to actually play baseball. At least in that case, outlandish baserunning can produce victories, whereas at the collegiate level it simply produces embarrassment. (Search hashtag #BealsBall if you are interested in an account of these--the 2014 highlight was a batter who hit a home run being called out for passing the runner at first.)

I usually am not this cynical about OSU sports; I am a true believer, a fan who tends towards homerism. Baseball is a little tougher on this front for me, though, since I can’t just turn off my analytical approach to the game just because the uniforms are scarlet and gray. But my sarcasm is aimed at squarely at the professional coaches, not at the student-athletes on partial scholarships who bust their tail for the greater glory of The Ohio State University.

The Buckeyes got off to a pretty solid start to the season, going 8-6 before playing their first home game; while that record does not sound particularly impressive, it included wins over Auburn, Oklahoma, and Oregon, with three of the losses coming in the final stretch of four games in Oregon (three against the Ducks and one against the Beavers). OSU then won its first five home games to fatten the record for 13-6 before Big Ten play opened.

OSU’s first Big Ten series was scheduled to be played at East Lansing, but it was moved to Columbus on account of weather and the Bucks took two of three from the Spartans. Defending champs Indiana came in the next weekend and unceremoniously swept the series, and a trip to Lincoln the following weekend resulted in a Cornhusker sweep on three one-run wins, the latter two walkoffs including a three-run ninth inning implosion in the middle game. When Ohio lost the first game of its next home series against Penn State, the seven-game conference losing streak was the first for the program since 1987.

1987 was a year that came up repeatedly in 2014. While the Bucks won the final two games from PSU and two of three at Purdue and hosting Iowa (the debacle described to open this post notwithstanding), they closed the conference campaign by losing two of three at Ann Arbor and hosting Northwestern. The end result was a 10-14 Big Ten record, OSU’s worst since 1987. And while all this was going on in Big Ten play, OSU was not exactly tearing it up in mid-week games, going 7-6 in such games (including taking two of three in a weekend series from Murray State). OSU was just 5-12 on the road (.294), the program’s worst showing since 1972 (3-14).

In my season preview post, I made a grievous error, stating that the top six finishers in the conference qualified for the Big Ten tournament. I was mistaken--the field was expanded to eight this year in preparation for the thirteen-team Big Ten of 2015. It was a fortuitous change, since otherwise the seventh-seeded Bucks would have been on the outside looking in. It was little matter, though, as one-run losses to Nebraska and Illinois ended OSU’s season.

The final tally was a 30-28 (.517) record, seventh among Big Ten teams. OSU was also seventh in the conference in EW% (.545) and PW% (.523); Indiana led in all three with figures of .746, .803, .733. OSU averaged 4.79 runs to a conference average of 4.87, while the Buckeyes allowed just 4.36 runs per game versus an average of 4.66 (although in comparing these figures it’s worth considering that Bill Davis Stadium is a fairly strong pitcher’s park). OSU’s offense was pretty much in line with the Big Ten average not only in terms of output but shape as well, with a .267 batting average, .103 walk/AB ratio, and .096 isolated power compared to averages of .271, .101, and .089. It seems difficult to believe that OSU actually had a greater than average power output, but power is significantly down in college baseball, and the Big Ten, never a strong power league (talent and weather likely being contributing factors), is no exception.

Offensively, OSU had a couple bright spots, but they were outweighed by disappointments or puzzling coaching decisions. At catcher, Aaron Gretz was one of the team’s more productive hitters, creating 6.3 runs per game on the strength of a team-high .156 W/AB ratio, but got only 129 PA to 102 to his backup Conor Sabanosh. To be fair, Sabanosh created 5.7 RG himself and also had a good walk rate, but hit for less power than Gretz. Beals has never been willing to let Gretz run with the catching duties despite him appearing to be an adequate defender and consistently outperforming the other catcher with whom he competes for playing time.

First baseman Zach Ratcliff was a disappointment in his sophomore season, failing to show the power he had as a freshman by hitting just 2 longballs in 99 AB and turning in the least effective overall performance of any OSU hitter (.232/.262/.313). 1B/DH Josh Dezse enjoyed a bounceback season, although his injuries prevented him from returning to the Buckeye bullpen as expected. Still, his 5.5 RG and 5 homers were an offensive bright spot and he improved as the season went on.

OSU’s other infield positions were subject to some interesting coaching decisions. Sophomore Troy Kuhn started the year at second base and led the team with 6 home runs and was second with 6.3 RG and +9 RAA. Third base was manned in the early part of the season by sophomore Jacob Bosiokovic, who was expected to be a key offensive contributor and power source, but hit just one homer and turned in a perfectly average 5.0 RG. Shortstop was supposed to be the province of sophomore Craig Nennig, but an early season injury left him sideline and opened the door for sophomore Nick Sergakis, who provided a needed jolt to the offense and became the leadoff hitter despite a team-low .053 W/AB. His overall line of 5.4 RG was a definite upgrade for the middle infield. But when Nennig returned from injury, Beals shuffled the infield to get Nennig back on the field. While Nennig is a superior fielder, he has yet to show any indication of being a productive hitter (.231/.331/.256 in 146 PA was a steup up from his debut campaign). This shifted Sergakis to second and Kuhn to third, leaving Bosiokovic to come off the bench and eventually get a look in left field.

Bosiokovic’s chance in left field came because senior Tim Wetzel failed to reverse his junior year offensive collapse, struggling to a .223/.284/.285 line in 185 PA. Also getting significant playing time in both left and center were a pair of freshman, Ronnie Dawson and Troy Montgomery. Dawson emerged as OSU’s offensive star, a .337/.385/.454 (7.0 RG, +12 RAA) hitter with flair and a certain fan favorite. Montgomery’s debut was less captivating (.235/.297/.353). And in right field, junior Pat Porter caught the Wetzel junior curse, tumbling to a .229/.311/.329 line after being penciled in as a reliable #3 hitter. The only other Buck to get significant plate appearances was sophomore Ryan Leffer, who had a solid offensive line (.303/.355/.343) while earning time at third base and DH.

OSU’s pitching staff wound up with a surprising ace, as freshman Tanner Tully was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year with a team-high 93 innings with +14 RAA and team-low 2.22 ERA and .7 W/9. While Tully’s 3.20 eRA and 5.1 KG suggest that he is a strong regression candidate, performance-wise he was the clear leader of the OSU staff. Junior Ryan Riga started the year as #1, but struggled through injuries and was not particularly effective (4.85 RA and 6.01 eRA over 68 innings and 11 starts). Senior Greg Greve turned in the best season of his career, winning a team-high seven games and contributing 12 RAA over 85 innings. The two most common mid-week starters were sophomore Jake Post and freshman Zach Farmer. Post was inconsistent but showed flashes of being an effective starter when filling in for Riga in the weekend rotation (+1 RAA but a 5.17 eRA). Farmer pitched solidly (4.01 RA over 49 innings) but was diagnosed with leukemia and will miss the 2015 campaign, although all indications are that his prognosis is good which of course is paramount.

OSU’s bullpen took a big step back from 2013, largely due to Trace Dempsey’s regression from stud closer to wild and ineffective (-7 RAA and 4.9 W/9). Freshman Travis Lakins was the bright spot of OSU’s pen, pitching himself into a starting job for 2015 with +12 RAA (second only to Tully) and a team-leading 9.0 K/9. Senior Tyler Giannonatti moved into higher leverage innings and responded well with +3 RAA over 33 innings.

The rest of OSU’s reserve pitchers were hit hard by injuries (particularly to promising freshman reliever Adam Niemeyer) and none logged enough innings to really evaluate their potential to help the team in 2015. As the season wore on, freshman Curtiss Irving got more work, but a 6.66 eRA with 5.7 W and 5.2 K per nine over nineteen frames means the jury is still out. Of the others, it’s worth noting that freshman Shea Murray had the lowest RAA on the team (-8), on the basis of getting lit up for six walks and nine runs in just 2 1/3 innings.

2014 was not an encouraging year for the program. While Beals recruiting efforts continue to draw praise, after four seasons there has yet to be any tangible on-field results. Beals four-year record is 124-105 (.541), the worst four-year stretch for the program since 1987-1990 (117-111, .513), and that period featured an upward trajectory as Beals’ predecessor Bob Todd took command of the program (you will note that 1987 came up multiple times as a low point for the program). In 1991, the Buckeyes exploded onto the national scene by going 52-13, coming within a game of reaching the College World Series and finishing as high as #13 in the national polls. Beals’ four-year Big Ten record of 49-47 (.510) is the worst since 1986-89 (40-48, .455).

At some point, Beals’ recruits need to start producing on the field, and the direction they are given needs to improve. OSU’s baserunning is an atrocity. It is impossible for me to convey just how embarrassing the team-wide effort to give away outs is, and it has only gotten worse as #BealsBall has become the culture of the program. As a proud alumnus, it is infuriating that the university has discarded great men like Jim Tressel, Jon Waters, and Gordon Gee, as well as a promising coach in Mark Osiecki while athletic director Gene Smith is allowed to retain his job and retains the services of Beals. OSU baseball is a program that has demonstrated the ability to dominate the Big Ten, exhibit national relevance, draw fans to the park, and even occasionally turn a profit for the athletic department, a rarity in northern baseball. The powers that be would be wise to keep that in mind before allowing Beals to make all that a distant memory.