1882 NL

1882 would be a very eventful year for baseball, but that was belied by the NL’s lack of pre-season franchise changes; this was be the first season in which all league members returned. For the first time, the NL had a serious rival operating in a similar fashion to itself, the American Association. Also significantly, William Hulbert died on April 10, leaving the league without its founder and president. Arthur Soden of Boston was his successor.

There were no significant rule changes. Players were required to account for their own bats and uniforms when they were on the road, and were also obligated to purchase at least two uniform sets. In one of the final actions of Hulbert’s tenure, reacting in response to a supposed AA plan, the league adopted a uniform color-coding scheme in which each position would wear a different color uniform (there is some disagreement in the secondary sources about this, and I’d like to believe that’s because it never really happened). Pitchers wore baby blue, catchers scarlet, first baseman scarlet and white, second baseman orange and black, third baseman blue and white, shortstops maroon, left fielders white, center fielders red and black, and right fielders gray. The ridiculousness of this should be obvious, and it was quickly quashed if it ever had existed at all (there are varying reports in the secondary sources about whether players actually took the field dressed like clowns or not).

Arthur Irwin, the Providence shortstop, is said to have been the first to use a padded glove, and his teammate Paul Hines has been cited as the first player to wear sunglasses. As with other such firsts, these are potentially dubious in their accuracy. Cap Anson was called out during a May 5 game for walking back to the base after a foul ball instead of running; this minor rule was done away with after the season. On May 25, Curry Foley of Buffalo became the first major leaguer to hit for the cycle in a 20-1 rout of Cleveland. On August 17, Providence defeated Detroit 1-0 in eighteen innings on Hoss Radbourn’s home run; it would be the longest major league shutout until 1967. Chicago’s brilliant Larry Corcoran no-hit Boston 5-0 on September 20 to become the first author of multiple no-nos.

Umpire Dick Higham, employed by Detroit (umpires in this time were employed by teams and went on road trips with them) purportedly wrote a gambler a letter telling him how to bet on a May 30 Wolverine game against Providence. He was subsequently dropped by Detroit and umpired for Troy on June 20-22, but then was called to a hearing on June 24 in Detroit. Higham claimed that he was innocent, but nonetheless was removed. He is the only umpire ever explicitly expelled for dishonesty.

The pennant race turned into a two team affair. Two-time defending champ Chicago put up some impressive performances (exemplified by a 35-4 thumping of Cleveland in late July), but Providence had the lead by three games with sixteen to play. The White Stockings went on a 15-1 tear to take the pennant by three games.

However, controversy abounded. The final three scheduled White Stocking games at Buffalo were moved to Chicago for financial reasons. This was objected to by Providence, and the Grays wanted a special series after the regular season to determine the pennant. Chicago assented, although it is unclear whether this was ever actually regarded as championship series.

By the time it ended, there were no such questions. Chicago played the first three games of the nine game series with players out of position (and Abner Dalrymple and Joe Quest on the bench) and fell behind 3-0. They wound up winning the series 5-4 with a 19-7 win in the ninth game, played at Fort Wayne long after general interest had been exhausted.

Entering the offseason, the National League would be looking for two new members and dealing with the realization that they finally had a rival worthy of their respect.

STANDINGS



Chicago was even better in EW% than their actual record, but game scores like 35-4 will do that for you. The standings wound up playing out in the exact order of EW%, except for the third place tie between Boston and Buffalo. It was also another fairly balanced year for the league as only Worcester was dreadful and no one ran away and hid.

In 1882, the league hit .251/.271/.342 for a .130 SEC, 5.41 runs and 24.33 outs per game.

CHICAGO



The White Stockings returned the entire regular lineup from their 1881 pennant winner, although there were minor shuffles in the lineup; second baseman Joe Quest was benched, Tom Burns slid from short to second, King Kelly came in from right to play short, and Hugh Nicol came off the bench to take over right. However, for the late season pennant push, Anson reinstalled Quest and benched Nicol. Neither man hit much; Quest was pretty much at replacement level in his 167 PA.

Al Spalding decided that he wanted an anonymous official scorer who would therefore be free from the various pressures inherent to the job. He hired a woman named Elisa Green Williams, who did the job in secret for many years.

According to an anecdote in Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract, the term “Charley horse” originated when the Chicago players attended a racetrack one day and witnessed a horse named Charley break down. The next day, when George Gore pulled up lame on a stolen base attempt, two and two came together. Do I buy it? No, but anecdotes that combine horse racing and baseball are hard to come by.

PROVIDENCE



The Grays also displayed a great deal of lineup stability; considering that Chicago and Providence had run 1-2 in the previous two seasons, it seemed to be wise policy. The only changes were Harry Wright as the new manager after his long stint in Boston, and his brother George coming out of retirement for his swan song at age 35. Wright was only a shadow of his former self, with a pitiful 35 ARG.

In an attempt to stimulate attendance, the Grays and their opponents paraded through the streets of the city before games.

BOSTON



The Reds replaced departed manager Harry Wright with longtime infielder John Morrill. There were no wholesale shits on the infield, only rookie Sam Wise (4 PA for Detroit in 1881) replacing Ross Barnes at shortstop (how that came about is a story for the AA section). Perhaps Morrill’s own experience of being yanked around the infield (he had played every position on a regular basis for at least one season except short) influenced him to keep the infield intact.

Pat Deasley, a reserve in 1881, became the full-time catcher as Pop Smith moved to Cincinnati of the AA. Pete Hotaling of Worcester took over center field, rookie Ed Rowen inherited right field, and Bobby Mathews was brought in as Grasshopper Jim’s #2 after pitching for the Grays in 1881. Whitney, always a fine hitter, paced the team in BA, OBA, SLG, RG, and WAA. His 61 runs created were only four off the team lead of Morrill and Joe Hornung, who made 70 and 90 more outs respectively.

BUFFALO



The Bisons shuffled their lineup a bit, moving players back to their more natural positions. Jim O’Rourke went from third to center, Deacon White from left to third, and Hardy Richardson from center to second. Blondie Purcell took the full-time job in left field after amassing 205 PA in 1881 between Buffalo and Cleveland. He would be fined $10 for cutting a wet ball in an attempt to make the umpire put a new one into play. Pud Galvin complained that he could not throw his curve properly with a wet ball.

Rookie #2 pitcher Hugh Daily was called One Arm because, well, he had one arm.

CLEVELAND



The Blues had two rookies (catcher Fatty Briody (4 PA for Troy in 1880) and third baseman Mike Muldoon) in their lineup. Left fielder Dude Esterbrook has not played in the league since 1880 (Buffalo) and center fielder John Richmond was brought in from Boston.

In the aforementioned 35-4 shellacking at the hands of the champion White Stockings, reserve outfielder Dave Rowe was in the box, and gave up 29 hits and 7 walks.

DETROIT



The Wolverines were at the center of the relatively limited player battles between the NL and the AA; again, this topic will be expounded upon in the AA entry, but backup infielders Dasher Troy (11 games in 1881) and Sam Wise (1 game) were not reserved after the 1881 season and signed with AA clubs. Eventually, Troy returned to Detroit and was the regular second baseman, while Wise wound up with Boston. Catcher Charlie Bennett was a major point of contention as well, but that was for an 1883 contract.

Rookie Joe Farrell was the third baseman, while Mike McGeary was imported from Cleveland to play short.

TROY



The Trojans featured two regular rookies, shortstop Fred Pfeffer and pitcher Jim Egan. John Smith started the year as the first baseman but later wound up in Worcester. Buck Ewing played third primarily (44 games), but also caught 25 games. Roger Connor as a center fielder seems interesting, but he actually spent more time at first (43 G) than he did in the outfield (24). Outside of Pete Gillespie and Chief Roseman, the outfield situation was quite murky.

The team finished only 19.5 games back, but it probably seemed a lot worse. They suffered through a sixteen game losing streak, lost money to the point where they had to be subsidized, and were eventually kicked to the curb, a casualty of the skirmish with the AA and good old-fashioned financial problems.

WORCESTER



The Brown Stockings finished 18.5 games behind Troy. The team featured two rookie outfielders, Tom O’Brien and Jackie Hayes. Left fielder Jim Clinton had not played in the National League since 1876 (with Louisville). An interesting transaction apparently resulted in Frank Mountain being loaned to Philadelphia of the AA for about a month beginning around the end of May.

The team drew just 11,000 fans for the entire season, around 260 a game. In an attempt to boost attendance, the team pioneered the single admission doubleheader. The roster was overhauled in an attempt to remove “rowdiness and dissension”, and franchise pitcher Lee Richmond was hampered by a sore arm. Despite this, he was one of just two regulars to hit better than the league average (first baseman Harry Stovey was the other).

In September, the NL voted to drop Troy and Worcester, perhaps fearful of the AA’s upper hand in attendance and entry into large cities long ignored by the NL, or just plain tired of having weak sisters in the circuit. Worcester apparently threatened to resign at this point, which would have caused all their games to be struck from the standings. This was confusion was another catalyst in some of the Chicago/Providence pennant controversy, but Worcester played 84 games, so apparently it wound up being an idle threat.

The departure of Troy and Worcester essentially marked the end of an era in which a very small city (relatively, of course) could field a "major league" team, with the exception of the future chaotic three league seasons.

Leaders and trailers:
BATTING AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.368)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (.362)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (.330)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (.158)
ON BASE AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.403)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (.397)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (.382)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (.174)
SLUGGING AVERAGE
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.547)
2. Roger Connor, TRO (.530)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (.510)
Trailer: George Wright, PRO (.189)
Doc Bushong’s BA was .004 lower than Wright’s, his OBA .006. I’m not sure that I’m aware of a superstar who ended his career in a sorrier state than George Wright did, essentially as the worst regular in the league or close to it. That doesn’t mean there isn’t one; I just can’t think of one. This was a rapidly evolving and improving game.
SECONDARY AVERAGE
1. Jim Whitney, BSN (.283)
2. Dan Brouthers, BUF (.239)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (.238)
Trailer: George Wright, POR (.049)
RUNS CREATED
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (90)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (84)
3. Roger Connor, TRO (79)
4. George Gore, CHN (77)
5. Paul Hines, PRO (75)
ARG
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (197)
2. Jim Whitney, BSN (190)
3. Cap Anson, CHN (184)
4. Roger Connor, TRO (166)
5. Joe Start, PRO (163)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (34)
WAA
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (+3.9)
2. Cap Anson, CHN (+3.4)
3. Paul Hines, PRO (+3.0)
4. Roger Connor, TRO (+2.8)
5. Jim Whitney, BSN (+2.8)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, PRO (-2.6)
WAR
1. Dan Brouthers, BUF (+4.8)
2. Paul Hines, PRO (+4.4)
3. Jim Whitney, BSN (+4.3)
4. Jack Glasscock, CLE (+4.3)
5. Cap Anson, CHN (+4.2)
Trailer: Doc Bushong, WOR (-1.0)
ARA
1. Larry Corcoran, CHN (68)
2. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (75)
3. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (84)
4. Jim McCormick, CLE (86)
5. Stump Wiedman, DET (86)
Trailer: Fred Corey, WOR (139)
WAA
1. Larry Corcoran, CHN (+3.0)
2. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (+2.7)
3. Jim McCormick, CLE (+2.3)
4. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (+2.0)
5. Stump Wiedman, DET (+1.5)
Trailer: George Derby, DET (-2.6)
T WAR
1. Jim Whitney, BSN (+5.0)
2. Hoss Radbourn, PRO (+3.9)
3. Larry Corcoran, CHN (+3.5)
4. Jim McCormick, CLE (+3.2)
5. Fred Goldsmith, CHN (+3.1)
Trailer: George Derby, DET (-2.5)

My all-star team:
C: Charlie Bennett, DET
1B: Dan Brouthers, BUF
2B: Fred Dunlap, CLE
3B: Ed Williamson, CHN
SS: Jack Glasscock, CLE
LF: Joe Hornung, BSN
CF: Paul Hines, PRO
RF: Curry Foley, BUF
P: Jim Whitney, BSN
P: Hoss Radbourn, PRO
MVP: SS Jack Glasscock, CLE
Rookie Hitter: 3B Mike Muldoon, CLE
Rookie Pitcher: One Arm Daily, BUF

I went with Joe Hornung over a close group in left field that included Dalrymple, York, and Wood on the strength of his +12 Fielding Runs (ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, Palmer & Gillette).

The right field crop is very weak; Curry Foley at 2.2 WAR wouldn’t be in the top four in left or the top three in center. Actually, I would pick the two runner-up centerfielders (Gore and Connor, with the caveat that Connor was playing first more than the outfield) over Hornung or Curry. However, my principle has been to pick guys who actually played the position for the “all-star team”, not players at comparable positions who were actually more valuable. This is especially problematic in the early years of the NL as right field was still much-used as a place to hide a butcher or a change pitcher.

The rookie crop this year was very weak as well. In past seasons, there had always been rookies with a legitimate claim to being the all-star at their position. This season, Mike Muldoon was solid (2.2 WAR), but hardly star-caliber. Of course, there were only eight regular rookie hitters to choose from, and just two pitchers, each of whom ranked below replacement level. It is easy to speculate that the cause of this was the demand for players caused by six new major league teams. This would not have nearly the impact it would today, as several of the AA teams were already respectable independent clubs, but certainly talent was not as available as it had been.

Finally, my choice of Jack Glasscock as MVP is predicated on his 24 Fielding Runs. On offense and position, I had him .5 WAR behind Dan Brouthers. So all I have to do is believe that he was around 5 runs better in the field relative to his position than Brouthers. Given Glasscock’s reputation and his perennial good standing in FR, I am more than willing to believe it.

1882-1883 Introduction

In my long-neglected effort to apply sabermetric measures to the nineteenth century game while also providing a perfunctory history, I have chosen to treat the seasons of 1882 and 1883 together. In fact, the statistical methods that I have used here are for the most part the same as those that I used for 1876-1881. It is not until 1884 that I felt the need to delineate a new era, so to speak (and of course subject to disagreement).

However, I split these two seasons off on the historical level because for the first time, the National League has a competitor engaging it on similar terms. What I mean by this is that there had previously been independent professional clubs, some of which were similar in quality to some of the NL teams. However, until the American Association began play in 1882, there had not been another league that behaved in the way which we would expect a major league to today--setting a schedule centrally (or at least proscribing the number of games that should be played between each club), setting uniform playing rules, restricting membership, attempting to improve the position of the league as a whole rather than solely worrying about the affairs of one club, etc.

In 1884, the Union Association will emerge as another challenger (at least in the dreams of its backers), and I think that is another good place to draw a line. I also found that run estimation in the mid-to-late 1880s is trickier than in the 1876-1883--not any less accurate, in most cases, but only after applying different formulas to smaller groups of seasons.

So, the methodology for the 1882 and 1883 recaps will be much the same as for 1876-1881; see the links on the right side of the page for a refresher. The Base Runs method being used is:

A = H + W - HR + E + .08SH
B = (.726S + 1.948D + 3.134T + 1.694HR + .052W + .799E + .727SH + 1.165WP + 1.174PB - .05(AB - H - E))*1.087
C = AB - H - E + .92SH
D = HR

As I mentioned in the earlier piece, the inclusion of SH was an embarrassing mistake on my part, but it all washes out since the SH are just an estimate based on singles, walks, and estimated errors--it just shifts around the values of those a bit, in a way that made the formula slightly more accurate. But there really were no sacrifice hits at this stage of the game's development, and I knew that, and I flat out forgot it when working on the run estimator. Embarrassing.

I would also be remiss if I did not point out that the formula does not work as well for the AA teams as it does for the NL teams, so all of the results for the AA in 1882-83 should be taken with an extra grain of salt. Again, I cannot stress enough that all of the metrics should be looked at with a much more jaundiced eye than similar figures for recent times.

The formulas used for the NL are the same, except I used a custom error estimate each year. E = x(AB - H - K), and the value for x is .1277 in 1882 and .1409 in 1883.

The BsR formula generates these linear weights for the seasons. The first set is presented as S, D, T, HR, W, E, AB-H-E, SH, PB, WP. The second set is the one that is actually applied to players, where the coefficients for the categories we don’t have (SH, PB, and WP--we also don’t have errors of course, but have estimated those) are “folded” into the weights for singles, walks, outs, etc. So those weights are displayed as S, D, T, HR, W, E, AB-H-E:

1882: .549, .836, 1.114, 1.397, .391, .566, -.143, .080, .275, .273
1882: .583, .867, 1.145, 1.397, .425, .600, -.143
1883: .561, .845, 1.120, 1.393, .405, .578, -.150, .073, .273, .270
1883: .594, .876, 1.151, 1.393, .438, .611, -.150

For the American Association, I have used different estimates for WP and PB (but the same estimate for SH):
WP = .0449*(H + W - HR + E)
PB = .0836*(H + W - HR + E)

The AA did not track batter strikeouts, so errors must be estimated as a proportion of (AB-H). This proportion is .1323 for 1882 and .1269 for 1883.

And the linear weights for the AA:
1882: .549, .846, 1.134, 1.411, .386, .587, -.145, .084, .285, .283
1882: .587, .881, 1.169, 1.411, .423, .605, -.145
1883: .558, .851, 1.136, 1.407, .396, .575, -.149, .079, .282, .280
1883: .595, .886, 1.171, 1.407, .433, .612, -.149

For teams, I have decided to stop using PW% and producing an estimate for Runs Created Allowed. Those estimates weren’t particularly accurate, anyway, and it’s a hassle to come up with different formulas each season for estimating all of the missing data from the defensive perspective--opponent at bats, doubles, etc. If I felt that those categories were adding something substantial, I would go through the effort.

I have also marked "rookies" in pink--I used 100 PA or 50 IP in the majors (NA, NL, AA for this time period) as the cutoff points.

In the next installment I will begin the yearly review with the 1882 NL. The details of the NL/AA relationship will mostly be saved for the AA portion, but they may be hinted at in the NL installment.

Great Moments in Yahoo! Schedules

Tripleheader!

April 4, 1994

What was the most important game in the history of the major leagues? Perhaps it was one of the games that could be argued to have been the very first major league game (the National Association’s first game on May 4, 1871 between Cleveland and Fort Wayne; the National League’s on April 22, 1876 between Boston and Philadelphia; or the American League’s on April 24, 1901, between Cleveland and Chicago). Maybe it was October 3, 1951 as Bobby Thomson hit The Shot Heard Round the World. You would get a lot of support for April 15, 1947 as Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, and rightfully so. From a business standpoint, consider April 14, 1953, the Braves’ first game in Milwaukee after fifty years of franchise stability, or April 10, 1961 as the second Senators hosted the White Sox to open the expansion era.

Or maybe you’d point out that I’ve not attempted to define what makes a game important as opposed to the circumstances that led to it, and that too many factors would go into doing so to produce a coherent result. There have literally been hundreds of thousands of games in major league history, and so this exercise is inherently silly. But one question I can answer with absolute certainty is “What was the most important game to you, personally?” And that was the 1994 Opening Day game between the Mariners and the Indians, the first regular season game ever played at Jacobs Field.

By late 1993, I was pretty interested in sports, but not baseball. Baseball simply had not captured my interest the way that football and basketball had. I really can’t put my finger on why that was, as my personality even at a young age was well-suited to quiet contemplation, patient and passive spectatorship, and interest in numbers and factoids. It is obvious now that baseball is the perfect sport for me, but it was no less true long before I knew that.

I suppose I can assign some of the blame for this to the Indians. The organization was mired in a few decades of persistent losing, and there was no excitement surrounding the team. I was (sadly) a sports talk radio listener at this point and the Browns dominated the Cleveland scene (they still do, of course, but to a lesser extent). There was no social or peer pressure to follow the Indians, and thus in a pre-internet, no cable household, baseball in general. My dad was a casual baseball fan; I remember watching some of the 1993 World Series on a Friday or Saturday night. We also went to one of the Indians final games at Municipal Stadium in September 1993, but it was on a Sunday and my most indelible memory of the whole thing was fans huddling around a gentleman watching the Browns on a mini TV.

However, the tone started to shift a little bit in the spring of 1994, as there seemed to be genuine optimism regarding the Indians and excitement for the opening of Jacobs Field. I added free agent signings Dennis Martinez and Eddie Murray to the list of Indian players whose names I knew (Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Kenny Lofton, Jose Mesa, maybe Sandy Alomar), but was obviously still far from engaged as any sort of fan.

Then April 3, 1994 rolled around, the first regular season game at Jacobs Field between the Indians and the Mariners. Dennis Martinez v. Randy Johnson. Even as a kid I had a decent sense of history, so I believe that I was aware and interested in this event, but sadly not solely for it just being an Opening Day baseball game. It was pretty much the last time that I wouldn’t be interested in a major league game just on the basis of it being a baseball game.

The details that follow are all courtesy of the play-by-play account, as I have very little memory of the specifics of this game. The details of most games become fuzzy over time, replaced by memories of specific moments and a general haze. This is especially true for me with the earliest games I remember, and while the (gulp) decades that have elapsed are certainly a contributing factor, I don’t think it’s the only one, or even the primary one. Rather, my memories from this time suffer from my inability at the time to process baseball in context--the lack of a real-time knowledge base from which to differentiate those events that were truly memorable from those that were more mundane. I also would cite the lack of keeping score, which could be dismissed as a crutch in lieu of actual memories, but in my opinion is an essential tool with which to place the events of the game within the context of the game itself, let alone across time. Even in a typical game with seventy-five plate appearances, I find it’s easy to lose track of the truth and replace it with one’s own narrative in absence of a trusty scoresheet.

Seattle scored in the first and third to take a 2-0 lead. Meanwhile, Randy Johnson was pitching a no-hitter, which was notable for a couple reasons beyond the obvious. One, Johnson, while not yet established as a Hall of Fame super-ace, had already pitched a no-hitter and was clearly one of the leading candidates to do so again among active pitchers. Secondly, the only Opening Day no-hitter had been thrown by Bob Feller for the Tribe, and Feller was in attendance for the opening of the new era in Indians baseball. It was sometime around the seventh inning when I got home from school and started listening to this familiar yet also newish (to me) sport of baseball on the radio. It may sound overly dramatic and absurd, but it is not untrue to say that, literally, my life would never be the same.

In the eighth, the Indians finally got something going offensively. Candy Maldonado led off with a walk (that was about the only thing he did well in 1994), the fifth surrendered by Johnson (a reminder that this was pre-super-ace Johnson). Sandy Alomar singled to break up the no-hitter, a wild pitch moved the runners up, and Manny Ramirez doubled them in to tie the game.

Johnson was relieved by Tim Davis in the ninth, and the Indians rallied with two out on an Albert Belle double and Eddie Murray infield single, but Paul Sorrento struck out. In the tenth, the Mariners scored off Jose Mesa thanks mainly to singles by Ken Griffey and Kevin Mitchell, but Bobby Ayala and Kevin King couldn’t close it--the Indians rallied again. After Alomar struck out swinging to open the inning, Ramirez walked (Wayne Kirby pinch-ran) and Jim Thome hit a pinch-hit double. That’s right--Mark Lewis started the game at third over Thome given the latter’s perceived ineptness against southpaws. Somewhat bizarrely, Kenny Lofton was intentionally walked, Omar Vizquel hit into a fielder’s choice to score Kirby, and Carlos Baerga flew out, pushing the 3-3 game to an eleventh inning.

Eric Plunk retired Seattle in order in the top of the inning. In the bottom, King got Belle to ground out before Murray doubled. Sorrento flied out and Murray took third. Seattle intentionally walked Alomar to get to Kirby, who was now batting in Ramirez’s spot. Kirby lined a single down the left field line, and the Indians won the game 4-3.

It is difficult to exaggerate how much this game changed my attitude towards baseball. It might not have been entirely immediate, but if not it was pretty close. Memories are a bit fuzzy at this point, but for whatever reason, I remember being dragged along by my parents to shop for a refrigerator on Sunday April 10. The Indians’ fifth game of the season had been rained out at Kansas City on Saturday, so Chris Nabholz was skipped in the rotation and Dennis Martinez was pitching again on the TV at the appliance store. This confused me, and my dad explained to me that the fifth starter is often skipped in such a situation. The point of this mundane story? I knew who the fifth starter was.

That spring and summer, I became obsessed with both the Indians and collecting baseball cards. I hated the White Sox as the Indians chased them in the division, I followed all the intrigue of Albert Belle’s corked bat suspension and rejoiced when he homered in his return. I penciled Kenny Rogers’ perfect game into the list in my Information Please Sports Almanac, the baseball section of which had previously not gotten much attention but now was well-worn. By the end of the year I had subscriptions to two baseball publications (Beckett Baseball Card Monthly and Baseball Digest). I was starting to apply my natural interest in figures and analysis into what would, by spring of the next year, be a nascent interest in sabermetrics and by the next year be a full-blown obsession.

And when the players went on strike? I was disappointed, to be sure, but an event that potentially could have crushed a young fan before he had a chance to be fully invested had zero impact on my newfound infatuation. The next spring I eagerly learned all the names of the Indians’ replacement players and was ready to cheer for our ace Joe Slusarski, our middle-of-the-order thumper Joe Biasucci, our Kenny Lofton replacement Eric Yelding. After April 4, 1994, none of that really mattered. I was a baseball fanatic for good.

Would I have found the game in lieu of the excitement of this game? Given the Indians’ 1994 resurgence, I assume I would have, just not as soon. But had the Indians not emerged as a competitive team at that point, it gets murkier. Had I grown much older without discovering the wonder of baseball, it would have been too late to have it as an integral part of my mid-childhood and I can’t imagine being the same level of fan that I am today. But after the Opening Day game, I’m convinced that the Indians could have lost the rest of their games and the spark would not have been extinguished. I know precisely when I became a baseball fan--twenty years ago today.

Great Moments in Yahoo! Box Scores

Yahoo! has once again modified the appearance of their sports data package...standings, schedules, box scores, etc. I prefer the old format, but that's really not the point. What it does not appear as if they've done (and they never do) is to fix the bugs that are endemic. Today, it appears from the BOS/BAL box score that the AL has made some serious changes to the DH rule; apparently teams must have a DH, but must remove one of the other fielders as a result. The Red Sox went without a third baseman, the Orioles without a second baseman. Never change, Yahoo! box scores.

2014 Predictions

In lieu of a general disclaimer about the whole prediction game, from now on I can just point you to this piece. As a more specific disclaimer, please note that the missive that follows is only loosely based on objective sabermetric analysis—I do not have my own projection system, nor have I constructed detailed depth charts of each team, and thus my guesses are not in any way comparable to those of serious analysis. While there is no way I can approach making predictions without considering sabermetrics (since sabermetrics is a fundamental part of how I view anything in baseball), these are in no way “sabermetric predictions”. If Milwaukee loses 95 games, it’s not because sabermetrics have failed, I just would have made an awful guess. That has happened before (this in particular was a bloodbath) and it will happen again:

AL EAST

1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston (wildcard)
3. New York
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

Picking this division is not fun; I’m assuming here that Tampa Bay can maintain a reasonably steady level of performance, that Boston will regress a bit, and that all of New York’s free agents will only serve to paper over the loss of Cano and perhaps achieve underlying quality at the level of 2013’s actual record. It’s not at all hard to envision scenarios where the Rays’ decline in minor league depth leave them unable to overcome injuries and they end up as sellers, or where the Yankees get a rebound from Sabathia, improvement from Nova, a resurrection of Pineda, and end up with a fearsome starting rotation. What I’m more confident about is that Toronto and Baltimore would need a lot to go right. Picking Toronto ahead of Baltimore may feel wrong, and may be an opportunity to chide sabermetricians about overlooking the Orioles again, but the 2013 Orioles were essentially what their statistics said they should have been. A late flourish to add Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez only slightly pushes their projection forward, and is pretty much wiped out by potential regression/injury woes for Manny Machado. A lot of people (myself included) were way too high on the Blue Jays last year, but a lot went wrong and a .500 season is a reasonable target.

AL CENTRAL

1. Detroit
2. Kansas City
3. Cleveland
4. Chicago
5. Minnesota

The potential cracks show in the Tigers: their now ugly shortstop situation, the growing reliance on Miguel Cabrera in the middle of the order, aging complementary hitters; but given the competition, they are still among the safest bets to win a division. The Royals figure to be the new leader of the chase pack if their starting pitching patches (most importantly Yordano Ventura) can deliver. I’m not at all convinced that picking the Indians third with 80 wins was a good idea--the closer it is to the season, the worse I feel about the rotation and the more the possibility of one of those annoying White Sox resurrections looms. I attempt to be as neutral of a baseball observer as possible, but I can’t help but be biased towards the Indians. Among the other teams, there are none that I have any particular antipathy against, with two exceptions (sure, at the moment I find Philadelphia and Arizona insufferable due to various management personalities, but I hold no inherent ill-will towards those franchises). Those two are the Tigers, simply because of the collegiate loyalty of many of their fans, and the White Sox, the one team I just flat out don’t like. So I now tend to view the White Sox as possessing black magic. Jose Abreu could be a more reasonable explanation should they overplay expectations. I plan on seeing the Twins in Baltimore at the end of August, maybe they could call up Byron Buxton for me then?

AL WEST

1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (wildcard)
3. Oakland
4. Seattle
5. Houston

I keep waffling on this division, and the pitchers keep getting hurt. The Angels have fooled me each of the past two seasons, but made a valiant effort to deepen their staff with the Trumbo trade. With the carnage going on in Oakland and Texas, it’s not outside the realm of reason to suggest that Los Angeles may have the most stable group of pitchers in the division. It’s also easy to forget that Pujols is only a year removed from being a down-ballot MVP candidate. Things haven’t gone great for the Rangers since Josh Hamilton was on fire and they were hailed by some as the greatest team since the 1998 Yankees (May 2012 or so). While this has been amusing, it would be easy to overstate the extent of their struggles given that they have made the playoffs once and barely missed in 2013. The trade for Fielder and signing of Choo make a lot of sense for the short-term; the biggest obvious concerns are the injuries that have piled up and a more general thinning of the starting pitching, but none of the other AL West contenders are free of such questions. I’ve never fully bought in to the 2012-13 A’s, but that’s a reflection on me, not the team. They’ve stocked the bullpen, but the injuries to Parker and Griffin have thinned the starting ranks, and Scott Kazmir is one of the still-healthy pitchers. Uh-oh. The Mariners are good enough that positive deviations from expectations can put them in the hunt for a playoff spot, but to this outsider #6org appears to be in job preservation rather than strategic planning mode. Maybe they’ve finally found their own competitive edge in black magic to destroy their opponents’ pitching staffs. The Astros are still not good, but the league/division shift obscured the fact that even from a W-L record, they were no worse in ’13 than ’12 (CTR ticked up from 46 to 48). I was a tad too optimistic about their 2013 record, but people who are picking them to once again be historically bad are being a little silly. The bullpen alone is easy pickings for improvement, let alone players like Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman brought in as placeholders.

NL EAST

1. Washington
2. Atlanta
3. New York
4. Philadelphia
5. Miami

The 2013 Nationals were a wonderful lesson in why it’s dumb to pick teams to win 100 games, in why it’s dumb to ignore the plexiglas principle, and why if everyone is picking one outcome, you can often look smart by picking anything else. The 2014 Nationals appear to me to present a wonderful lesson in why one should not get hung up on the previous year’s performance in picking the next season, and in the benefits of playing in a weakened division. I’m picking them to win the World Series not because I’m convinced they are the best team in MLB (although they certainly could be), but because of the strongest teams, they’re the ones with the best combination of talent, weak-ish division, and playing in the inferior league. I was going to pick the Braves second even before the UCLs started popping, but I might have picked them for a wildcard spot before Beachy and Medlen went down. The hope is there for a Jason Heyward monster season, but the loss of McCann and the loss of luster of the Upton brother combination make the offense a bigger question mark. No team is ever more underrated than a poor team playing in a huge media market; you’d think the Mets were closer to 1962 than 2001 based solely on media and fan kvetching. They seem like a perfectly normal mediocre team to me. It might be wise to pick the Phillies ahead of the Mets, but it’s more fun to do it this way. The Marlins look lousy on paper but have to be one of the higher variance teams widely picked to have the worst record in their league.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis
2. Milwaukee (wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cincinnati
5. Chicago

The Cardinals organization is drawing high praise from all over the map, and for good reason--there is no other team that appears better positioned to weather injuries or implosions. Still, the smart money would bet on a decline in record from 2013, and in the mainstream narrative they are benefitting a bit from the halo of postseason success. They are still very well-positioned in the NL Central. Everyone should be granted one off-the-wall pick and mine is Milwaukee as a wildcard team. The addition of Garza makes their rotation quite respectable and they can easily gain a few wins on paper simply by using a non-Betancourt humanoid at first and avoiding last year’s second base meltdown (either Weeks or Gennett should be able to handle that on their own). And while it has nothing to do with a rational evaluation of their chances, the absurd suspension of A-Rod makes Ryan Braun the de facto symbol of the forces of resistance against the steroid totalitarians, and gives him and the Brewers the moral high ground. A lot of things went right for the Pirates in 2013, and I really don’t like their team better than Cincinnati’s, but the Reds have very little depth, particular offensively. An injury to Votto or Bruce would be disastrous, as the rest of the lineup features declining veterans (Ludwick, Phillips), a thoroughly unremarkable Frazier, and a cadre of youngish guys with questionable on base ability (Mesoraco, Cozart, Hamilton). The most interesting thing about the Cubs season will likely be the countdown to Baez & Bryant, but bounce back seasons from Castro and Rizzo are just as important to the long-term plan.

NL WEST

1. Los Angeles
2. San Francisco (wildcard)
3. Arizona
4. San Diego
5. Colorado

The Dodgers are an interesting case, as they appear to me to be highly overrated even by objective systems (BP calls for 98 wins, a figure which I find shocking). A healthy and full potential Dodger team might indeed be a juggernaut, but they have plenty of star players with big question marks (Kemp, Ramirez, Puig, Crawford), and a couple very sketchy offensive positions (second and third base). I’m not saying they shouldn’t be clear favorites in the NL West, and maybe I’m just missing something (and I picked them to win last year, which while hardly bold was not nearly as mundane as it is this year), but a 90% playoff probability doesn’t compute. The Giants will attempt to continue their even year success, and I think they have a pretty good shot to do so; a reasonably effective Tim Hudson and return to form from Matt Cain may be key. The Diamondbacks improved last year, they just don’t realize it because the Pythagorean fortune didn’t persist. When your big moves are to trade for Mark Trumbo and sign Bronson Arroyo, staying at .500 begins to feel ambitious. The Padres have taken over the mantle of the most boring team in baseball; it’s hard to see how they contend without a temporary blip like they experienced in 2010. The Rockies offer some more boom potential if for no reason other than Tulo, but contention is still a longshot.

WORLD SERIES

Washington over Tampa Bay

I believe that were this to come to fruition, it would be the most southern World Series in history, between two cities that are in no way southern.

AL Rookie of the Year: SP Yordano Ventura, KC

AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish, TEX

Assuming he only misses a start or two.

AL MVP: 3B Evan Longoria, TB

NL Rookie of the Year: 2B Kolten Wong, STL

NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, WAS

NL MVP: OF Jason Heyward, ATL

Worst team in each league: HOU, MIA

Most likely to go .500 in each league: TOR, ATL

Over/under on media personalities who will have to choke back tears re: Derek Jeter on national television: Seven

Will at least one sane human being have a brain hemorrhage as a direct result of Derek Jeter overload?: Yes

2014 Indians

Writing an Indians preview is something of an annual tradition here, and I see no reason to stop now. My interest at this point really lies in amusing myself by seeing if I can correctly predict the 25-man roster. There are a lot of places on the internet where you can find micro-analysis of teams and players; it’s not my strength as an analyst, and so for the most part any such analysis here will be perfunctory by design.

The Indians certainly surpassed my expectations in 2013, winning 92 games and earning one of the two wildcard playoff berths before being shut out by Tampa Bay in the one-game playoff, which I had the mixed pleasure of attending (pro: first playoff game, con: lousy outcome for an Indians fan). However, the offseason that follows has felt a lot like 2008--standing pat rather than bolstering the roster to take another shot. While such a decision should hardly be surprising given the track record of the Dolan-era Indians, it was a little jarring coming on the heels of the team’s aggressive attempt to contend in 2011 (most notably the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, which finally paid belated dividends and looks less of a disaster than anticipated as the prospects sent to Colorado have fallen upon hard times) and last season’s off-season spending spree that netted Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. The only free agent signing that is a lock for the 2014 roster is David Murphy, and a second LOOGY for the pen (Josh Outman) is the only trade acquisition that figures to make an impact. Meanwhile, two starters (Jimenez and Scott Kazmir) signed multi-year deals with other clubs.

This is not to say that these were not the right moves--I tend to think that the Indians need to make significant headway in player development before they can consider themselves a perennial contender given their financial resources--but they suggest that the front office doesn’t buy its own rhetoric about the team’s competitive prospects in 2014. I don’t think I would have wanted to sign Jimenez and Kazmir to those contracts either, but it’s hard to say that the Indians roster looks better today than it did on October 2.

Starting pitching remains a big question mark for the Tribe. Justin Masterson was good again last year, but he’s yet to put together consecutive effective seasons, and his struggles with lefties and sinker/slider reliance make him a disquieting pitcher in which to place one’s trust. He also is the owner of a big arbitration raise and a potential trade deadline casualty should Cleveland fail to contend. Danny Salazar was brilliant in the minors and his ten major league starts last year, and appears to have all the necessary stuff to be a top of the rotation arm, but is building off of a base of just 149 total innings pitched. Corey Kluber was a pleasant surprise, a reliable middle of the rotation arm earning cult status in the internet baseball community (or maybe just one extremely loyal devotee; the strength of the Kluber movement is unclear).

Zach McAllister represents a fourth righty with a rotation spot essentially sewn up, but his 3.75 ERA exaggerates his effectiveness (4.54 RA, 4.88 eRA), and he does not strike me as a pitcher with significant untapped potential. There are a variety of contenders for the fifth spot, from washed up vets (Aaron Harang and Shaun Marcum) to former top prospect (Carlos Carrasco) to soon-to-be former top prospect (Trevor Bauer) to junkballing righty (Josh Tomlin). The smart money is on Carrasco; the organization has remained positive about his potential and he is out of options. If he does not win the job, expect him to get a bullpen spot. Bauer will probably be given more time to work through his mechanical issues in AAA, while Marcum is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and Harang appears to be emergency depth. Tomlin is the pitcher most likely to give Carrasco a run for his money for the spot.

The bullpen will take on a very different look than it did on Opening Day 2013, as the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning options are all in very different places. The bullpen shakeup started with injury and legal trouble for Chris Perez, who was utilized as the closer when available but fell out of favor with the brass, leading to an unceremonious non-tender. Vinnie Pestano, who was extremely effective in the setup role in 2011-12, struggled all season, spending much of it in Columbus. Joe Smith was solid and moved up from the seventh to eighth inning, but signed a multi-year deal with the Angels.

In their stead, the Indians have returned to their standard closer strategy: someone else’s reject, often with questionable stuff or command. John Axford represents the latter, and sad to say one of those 30 save seasons with a poor RA appears to be the optimum outcome. Cody Allen will serve as one of the top set up man, provided his arm doesn’t fall off--Terry Francona’s usage of Allen was bizarre last year, as even as he moved up the pecking order in trust, he was not held back from more mundane situations, leading to a largely unnecessary 77 appearances (second in the AL). He’ll be joined by Bryan Shaw, who earned Francona’s trust with a 2.84 eRA, 9.0 KG, and 3.5 WG over 75 innings.

The other two sure things for the pen are the LOOGYs. Marc Rzepczynski pitched very well after being plucked from St. Louis’ bullpen excess, and Josh Outman was picked up from Colorado in exchange for Drew Stubbs. Neither are particularly exciting in terms of potential to outgrow their roles, although both have enough starting pedigree to warrant long relief duty.

That leaves two spots open. I expect one of them to go to Pestano, who has the highest upside of any of the candidates by far. Other options include Nick Hagadone, who’d be a third lefty and could provide long-ish relief; a few righties who had cups of coffee in 2013 in CC Lee, Preston Guilmet, and Blake Wood; lefty Scott Barnes and Colt Hynes; and non-roster invitees including David Aardsma, Scott Atchison, Matt Capps, JC Ramirez, and Mike Zagurski. Capps would have been a pretty good guess given the team’s propensity to give the seventh spot to a veteran reclamantion project, but a sore shoulder will hold him back. My guess here is Wood, who had was serviceable for the Royals over 120 inning in 2010-11 but missed all of 2012 and spent 2013 working his way through the Indians farm save two September appearances in the bigs. Wood has walked too many batters throughout his career to be reliable, but his stuff and relative youth (28) will make him an attractive flier.

To talk about the composition of the roster as it relates to position players, the third base situation has to take center stage. Former first-round pick Lonnie Chisenhall has never really hit that well at any level (94 OPS+ over 682 PA in the majors, 821 career minor league OPS) which has made alternatives attractive, including moving Carlos Santana to third. Santana was not serving as the regular catcher down the stretch, as Yan Gomes superior defense and surprising offensive showing freed Santana up to DH. If Santana is passable at third, I expect him to play there, a sentiment which surprises me. When the Indians started talking about this over the winter, I sort of laughed it off, but I now am convinced of their sincerity.

Gomes will be the catcher and is a prime candidate for offensive regression. Nick Swisher is slated as a full-time first baseman, but can play right if need be and while he held his own offensively with 3 RAA, the Indians had hoped for more in the first year of his four-year deal. Second baseman Jason Kipnis was not nearly as good in the second half as he was in the first (149 OPS+ to 103), but the season as a whole was worthy of down-ballot MVP consideration. Asdrubal Cabrera had a disappointing year (just 2 RAA and a .297 OBA), but the only thing that would jeopardize his position at shortstop is a deadline selloff.

Left field goes to Michael Brantley and his shiny new contract extension; I had been a skeptic of Brantley’s value, but he provided average production even for a corner spot last year, shedding concerns that he might be an over-extended fourth outfielder. If Swisher was a minor disappointment, Michael Bourn was a major disappointment; the center fielder had an OBA of just .322, created 4 runs/game, and missed 32 games due to injury. Right field figures to be a platoon of Ryan Raburn (right) and David Murphy (left) with Drew Stubbs shipped to Colorado. Raburn made a deal with the devil last year (.272/.357/.543 in 277 PA) and Murphy had a miserable year (.214/.273/.363, -5 RAR third lowest among AL regulars); together, more moderate luck might make them a mediocre whole.

The prospect of Santana being able to cut it at third should engender more excitement than it actually does, as Cleveland lacks a good DH candidate to plug in his place. Jason Giambi provided the single most memorable Indians moment since 2007, but his overall season line of .183/.282/.371 and his current age of 43 don’t lie: he has no business getting regular playing time in the majors.

I’ll assume that Chisenhall plays third and Santana is the regular DH, which still leaves a big roster question: will the Indians carry a third catcher or just use Santana as Gomes’ caddy? Given that the options are veterans Matt Treanor and Luke Carlin or minor league non-hitter Roberto Perez (623 OPS in 2013, 685 career), I’m guessing no, leaving three bench spots. One clearly belongs to utility man Mike Aviles, who is fine in that role but got too many starts (87) in 2013. Brantley can play a passable center, which means that Raburn/Murphy is fine as fourth outfielder, which does leave room for Jason Giambi. The Indians also could consider Jeff Francoeur (just say no), Nyjer Morgan, or Matt Carson as fourth outfielders. Elliott Johnson could snag a utility man spot, while September pinch-runner Jose Ramirez will be farmed out for everyday playing time. It’s conceivable that a hot spring from Bryan LaHair could put him in the mix for DH at bats as well. Frankly, my guess on the composition of the bench is no better than drawing names out of a hat.

I don’t think this Indians team is well-positioned to repeat their success of 2013. The rotation isn’t particularly strong, the bullpen is unproven; the offense should be fine, but I see no reason to expect it will be any better than it was in 2013. The Tigers remain the class of the division; they have never been as invulnerable as mainstream thought would have them, but the Royals are lurking around and while it may be completely irrational, I always am wary of a White Sox miracle. And as far as wildcard prospects go, the only AL teams I’d write off completely play in the Central except for Houston. I see the 50th percentile scenario for the Tribe as 80-82, third place.

1. 8 Michael Bourn
2. 3 Nick Swisher
3. 4 Jason Kipnis
4. D Carlos Santana
5. 7 Michael Brantley
6. 9 David Murphy
7. 6 Asdrubal Cabrera
8. 2 Yan Gomes
9. 5 Lonnie Chisenhall

Bench: IF Mike Aviles, IF Elliot Johnson, OF Ryan Raburn, DH Jason Giambi

1. Justin Masterson (R)
2. Danny Salazar (R)
3. Corey Kluber (R)
4. Zach McAllister (R)
5. Carlos Carrasco (R)

RP: Blake Wood (R)
RP: Vinnie Pestano (R)
LOOGY: Josh Outman (L)
LOOGY: Mark Rzepczynski (L)
SU: Bryan Shaw (R)
SU: Cody Allen (R)
CL: John Axford (R)

No Excuses

2014 will mark Greg Beals’ fourth season at the helm of the OSU baseball program, which means there are no excuses. He has had plenty of time to recruit his own players into the program and have them playing key roles, and perhaps more importantly he has had plenty of time in which to mold them to play baseball as Greg Beals believes it should be played. Unfortunately for the state of the program, 2013 was not encouraging on either front. One of the strengths that allowed OSU to contend in the Big Ten last season was a strong trio of weekend starters, a group that must now be replaced en masse. It is now time for Beals’ recruits to lead the offense, and so far the most noticeable characteristic of a Beals’ offense is baserunning that would make a JV high school coach blush.

One spot at which the Buckeyes are well-positioned is catcher, where junior Aaron Gretz will finally have the job to himself. Gretz, for whatever reason, was never able to fully overcome Greg Solomon in the eyes of Beals, despite being a better defensive catcher and possessing any sort of batting eye at all. Gretz figures to be an above-average Big Ten catcher, and is coming off a busy offseason in which the Minnesota native spent several weeks as a backup goalie for the OSU hockey team thanks to a transfer and an injury to the two scholarship goalies.

At first base, sophomore Zach Ratcliff figures to get the nod after emerging as one of OSU’s few power threats mid-way through the Big Ten season. The other option is redshirt junior Josh Dezse, who had to sit out 2013 with a back injury. Dezse will also pull double-duty on the mound, and so it stands to reason that he will act as the primary DH to save unnecessary wear and tear. Sophomore Troy Kuhn will start at second base after serving as the utility infielder in his freshman campaign. Kuhn got off to hot start collecting base hits, but showed little in secondary skills as a freshman, particularly in the power department. His choice of walkup music (“Who Let the Dogs Out”) may have been the most disappointing element of his campaign.

The first crack at the shortstop job will go to sophomore Craig Nennig, but there have to be serious questions about his ability to hold the job after hitting just .125/.143/.146 in 52 PA as a freshman, all against non-conference foes. At third base, sophomore Jacob Bosiokovic will be counted on to be a key cog in the offense. Bosiokovic showed flashes of potential, hitting for big power when he first got into the lineup, but his overall season line of .273/.327/.369 must improve greatly for the Buckeye offense to run as expected.

In the outfield, senior left fielder Tim Wetzel will look to rebound as an on-base guy and basestealing threat after a dismal junior season that is the outlier in his three-year track record (.215/.292/.304). Wetzel could also slide back over to center field in the event that true freshman Troy Montgomery stumbles. The Indians freshman is said to be a prototypical leadoff-hitting center fielder and will get a chance to assume both roles early in his career. In right field, junior Pat Porter was OSU’s only consistent offensive threat last year, building on a solid freshman campaign, and along with Bosiokovic and Dezse will be counted on to man the middle part of the lineup.

With so many youngsters graduating to the starting lineup, the bench will be unproven. The backup catcher figures to be junior Connor Sabanosh, a junior college transfer from Arizona (Arizona JUCOs have continued to be a key pipeline for Beals). Freshman Jalen Washington is listed in the old Rico Washington role (C/IF), and will be an option at the infield spots as well as behind the plate.

The utility infielder should be redshirt sophomore Ryan Leffel, who showed promise as a fielder and with his approach at the plate as a freshman in 2012 before sitting out 2013 with an injury. Leffel may be the backup plan at shortstop if Nennig cannot hit enough to retain the job. Other infielders on the roster are redshirt sophomore Nick Sergakis (a transfer from Coastal Carolina) and true freshman Curtiss Irving (first baseman) and JP Sorma. The two key outfield reserves are sophomore Jake Brobst, who got limited playing time as a freshman and can play center, and true freshman Ronnie Dawson, a powerful hitter from the Columbus area who may challenge Wetzel for his left field playing time.

For most of the offensive positions that need to be replaced, the likely starters are pretty clear based on last year’s roster utilization. The same is not true for the starting pitchers. Only one of the likely top three started a significant number of games in 2013, so uncertainty abounds.

The three most likely weekend starters in this observer’s opinion are senior Greg Greve, junior Ryan Riga and sophomore Jake Post. Greve started in 2011-12, but worked exclusively in relief last year, pitching solidly (3.65 RA). His previous performance as a starter was poor (ERA over 5 in each of 2011-12), so his spot is far from a lock. Riga was OSU’s top lefty reliever last year, also working in long relief, and was highly effective with 7.4 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine over 46 innings of work. Riga is probably the safest bet to actually be in OSU’s weekend plans. Post showed that he has good stuff last year in starting seven midweek games, but the results (7.63 RA in 31 innings) did not match his peripherals (7.6 K/2.6 W).

The rotation wildcard is Dezse, who was slated to move into a starting role in 2013 after serving as closer in 2011-12. Dezse has an electric fastball, but didn’t show much in the secondary offerings department when closing (and also didn’t have the lockdown numbers to back up his reputation). Given his injury issue, he will be worked back into the fold slowly, and (based on absolutely no inside information) I would be surprised if he ended as a starter. That leaves the other top options as a pair of true freshman. Lefty Zach Farmer has received rave reviews and if half of what has been said is true, he’ll be in the rotation by the time Big Ten play opens. Right hander Travis Lakins would be next in the pecking order.

Should Dezse wind up in the bullpen, he’ll join with junior Trace Dempsey to give the Bucks two big right-handed arms. Dempsey was untouchable for much of last season with his three-quarters movement-heavy stuff, but faltered a bit in key games against Indiana and in the Big Ten Tournament. Still, a 1.50 RA in 35 innings is a sterling campaign.

Behind Dempsey, the pen also will have key parts to replace with Riga and Greve starting and the graduation of key right-handers Brett McKinney and David Fathalikhani. The only other returning reliever who pitched significantly is senior Tyler Giannonatti, who mopped up last year and probably won’t be used in high leverage innings in 2013. Sophomore three-quarters lefty Matt Panek took a redshirt for injury last year after pitching sparingly as a freshman, but given Beals’ propensity for playing matchups, a healthy Panek should see the mound.

According to Big Ten baseball guru Chris Webb, the other most likely relievers for key innings are redshirt freshman sidearmer Michael Koltak, true freshman Adam Niemeyer, true freshman lefty Tanner Tully, and redshirt freshman Shea Murray. Other pitchers on the roster include junior lefty Michael Horesjei, redshirt freshman lefty Joe Stoll, and true freshman right-handers Kyle Michalik, Brennan Milby, and Yianni Pavlopoulus.

OSU opens its season this weekend with four games in Port Charlotte, Florida (UConn, Auburn, and two with Indiana State). The following weekend they will back in the Sunshine State to play Central Florida, The Citadel, and Oklahoma in Orlando. The first weekend in March will see the Bucks in Greenville, North Carolina to face Pitt, Western Kentucky, and East Carolina. The destination portion of the schedule ends the following week with a three game series at Oregon followed by a single contest at Oregon State.

The home opener is slated for March 14 with a three-game series against Siena, then midweek games against Akron and Xavier. Other midweek opponents throughout the season will be Marshall, Ohio University, Toledo, Dayton, at West Virginia, Ball State (Beals’ former employer), at Louisville, Miami, and Cincinnati.

Big Ten play opens March 21 with OSU at Michigan State. The weekends for the rest of the season will be hosting Indiana, at Nebraska, hosting Penn State, a bye week in which OSU will host Murray State, at Purdue, hosting Iowa, at Michigan, and hosting Northwestern. Should the Bucks qualify for the Big Ten Tournament by finishing in the top six, they will head to Omaha on May 21.

Will the Buckeyes get to Omaha? With Indiana breaking a twenty-nine year drought of Big Ten participation in the College World Series, this question might carry a different connotation than in the past. But given the current status of the program, the question should be limited to qualifying for the Big Ten Tournament. The Buckeyes have too many question marks to be considered a favorite in the conference race, and given that it’s year four of Beals’ tenure, I’m hoping that I am very wrong.

1. CF Troy Montgomery (FM)
2. 2B Troy Kuhn (SM)
3. RF Pat Porter (JR)
4. DH Jose Dezse (JR)
5. 3B Jacob Bosiokovic (SM)
6. 1B Zach Ratcliff (SM)
7. C Aaron Gretz (JR)
8. LF Tim Wetzel (SR)
9. SS Craig Nennig (SM)

SP #1: R Greg Greve (SR)
SP #2: L Ryan Riga (JR)
SP #3: R Jake Post (SM)
SP #4 (midweek): L Zach Farmer (FM)
SP #5 (midweek): R Travis Lakins (FM)

RP: R Tyler Giannonatti (SR)
RP: R Michael Koltak (FM)
RP: L Matt Panek (SM)
RP: R Trace Dempsey (JR)
CL: R Josh Dezse (JR)