Thursday, December 15, 2005

A quick word on the term "Runs Created"

Looking at the title of the last post, I can see that it might cause some confusion. I often use “Runs Created” in a general sense to mean a run estimator, rather then to refer to the Bill James method Runs Created. The James method of RC was once cutting edge, but it has obvious flaws and people have come along and invented new run estimators that are less flawed. I firmly believe that there is no reason to use James’ RC other than for quick estimates.

However, Bill came up with the best name for his method, because it includes an action. Runs are created. Similar terms include runs produced, runs generated, and runs manufactured. I think “created” is the best term, and so I like to use it.

Later run estimator methods have names like Extrapolated Runs and Base Runs and Contextual Runs. Having different names is necessary so that we can tell one run estimator from the other, but these are not good names IMO. I’m not blaming Furtado, Smyth, and Van, because all of the good names were already taken and they had to call it something. But a player does not “extrapolate” or “base” a run. They “create” or “produce” or even “contribute” a run.

So I will continue to use the great term coined by Bill James, even if his method has been surpassed in accuracy.

2 comments:

  1. Actually, the "base" term in BsR means that it is derived from the "basic" outcomes, as far as I can recall. It is not meant to signify anything about the "base" advance, in the sense of 4 bases = a run.

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  2. Don't tell that to Tango and his massive version that includes all kinds of stuff :)

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