Saturday, May 19, 2007

Preakness

I wasn't planning on posting my picks, but I must admit surprise at the seeming consensus among prognosticators that Hard Spun is the one to beat. Sure, Street Sense got his "favorable rail-skimming trip"; but Hard Spun also had a nice time on the lead with no real challengers. I think Flying First Class and King of the Roxy will have something to say about that at Pimlico, and with only 9 horses in the field, the odds of Street Sense getting the kind of trip he likes are much better then they were in Kentucky.

But I have to go with Circular Quay as my pick. First, I think Todd Pletcher entering him late after there was very little talk of it indicates that he has probably looked good to him. Secondly, he has now had a >8.5 furlong test, and did pretty nicely for himself in Louisville. He could be the beneficiary of a hotly contested lead between Hard Spun and whoever goes with him.

Street Sense would be my second choice, as he was for the Derby. Curlin, Xchanger, and Hard Spun would round out my top five, although I must put in a good word for King of the Roxy. Despite being a sprinter or miler in reality, I will be pulling for him, as he and I share an important attribute, one not commonly seen in top-class thoroughbreds; he and I are both Ohio-breds.

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