Tuesday, July 11, 2006

All-Stat Stat Check

I thought it would be a useful exercise, for myself at least, to run a quick check of the all-star break statistics. There are great, updated sabermetric stat resources updated at The Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus, but I always like to figure my own stuff myself rather then look at somebody else’s work. But for the rest of you, using those sites may well be more edifying then reading what follows.

First, teams. I have Expected W%, based on Runs and Runs Allowed, and PW%, based on RC and RC Allowed. I have presented these in the order W%, EW%, PW%, and interspersed flippant comments. At various points I will use words like “luck” to describe variation from EW% or PW%. This usage is not meant to indicate that the differences are conclusively due to chance and not systematic factors:
DET(670, 662, 619)
Not surprisingly lucky, but (depending on your perspective) surprisingly still first in baseball in PW%
CHA(648, 612, 579)
Exceeding expectations again
BOS(616, 581, 591)
NYN(596, 579, 568)
Lead NL in all three W% types
NYA(581, 582, 607)
TOR(557, 544, 580)
STL(552, 517, 505)
Perhaps even more vulnerable then they appear to be in the standings.
MIN(547, 532, 499)
SD(545, 531, 548)
LA(523, 562, 554)
OAK(511, 482, 449)
Disappointing despite being in first place. I’m sure Mr. Beane is aware of this, in some form.
TEX(511, 524, 540)
COL(506, 515, 508)
CIN(506, 484, 506)
SF(506, 515, 505)
MIL(489, 417, 477)
LAA(489, 489, 526)
ARI(489, 476, 483)
SEA(483, 506, 483)
HOU(483, 468, 467)
CLE(460, 548, 567)
The Anti-White Sox. Again. I’ve seen it suggested that Wedge should be fired, with the underperforming Pythagorean expectation in a big way two years in a row cited as a reason. I don’t buy this for a second. The answer this year almost certainly lies in the run distribution, and unless somebody can give me hard evidence to the contrary, it’s darn silly to believe the manager has control over this.
PHI(460, 461, 443)
BAL(456, 431, 423)
ATL(449, 490, 475)
FLA(442, 487, 476)
TB(438, 412, 430)
WAS(422, 428, 442)
CHN(386, 387, 424)
Worst EW% in the NL
KC(356, 357, 357)
Equally bad by any measure, and last in baseball in all of them
PIT(333, 429, 421)
Last in PW% in the NL, in addition to real W%

Now onto the pitchers. I will give the top five and bottom five in each league in a few “payoff” categories--i.e. run-based stuff, not components. For reference, the AL as a whole is hitting .273/.336/.437 with 5.05 runs per game; the NL is at .265/.330/.425 with 4.77. I used 75 innings as the qualification standard:
AL RA LEADERS:
Liriano, MIN (1.84)
Halladay, TOR (3.07)
Santana, MIN (3.16)
Verlander, DET (3.19)
Contreras, CHA (3.46)
AL eRA LEADERS:
Liriano, MIN (2.43)
Lackey, LAA (2.76)
Santana, MIN (3.12)
Halladay, TOR (3.24)
Bonderman, DET (3.29)
AL RAR LEADERS:
Halladay, TOR (+47)
Santana, MIN (+46)
Liriano, MIN (+44)
Zito, OAK (+39)
Verlander, DET (+38)
I guess Santana would get my mid-season Cy Young vote, but Liriano and Halladay are having superb seasons as well.
AL RA TRAILERS:
Silva, MIN (7.70)
McClung, TB (7.41)
Lopez, BAL (7.20)
Weaver, LAA (6.94)
Johnson, CLE/BOS (6.88)
AL eRA TRAILERS:
Silva, MIN (7.22)
Johnson, CLE/BOS (6.75)
McClung, TB (6.72)
Lopez, BAL (6.57)
Radke, MIN (6.56)
The greatness of having the Santana/Liriano combo is lessened by having two of the league’s worst performers.
AL RAR TRAILERS:
Silva, MIN (-14)
Lopez, BAL (-11)
McClung, TB (-10)
Weaver, LAA (-6)
Johnson, CLE/BOS (-5)
Now some lists that will be presented with leaders and trailers back-to-back, since they’re not really “good/bad” indicators:
HIGHEST RA/eRA ratio, AL:
Lackey, LAA (3.49/2.76)
Santana, LAA (4.52/3.62)
Johnson, NYA (5.68/4.61)
Vazquez, CHA (5.33/4.64)
Wakefield, BOS (4.61/4.11)
LOWEST RA/eRA ratio, AL:
Liriano, MIN (1.84/2.43)
Lilly, TOR (4.54/5.32)
Verlander, DET (3.19/3.73)
Kazmir, TB (3.67/4.30)
Radke, MIN (5.65/6.56)
HIGHEST $H, AL:
Johnson, CLE/BOS (.354)
Millwood, TEX (.345)
Radke, MIN (.344)
Silva, MIN (.342)
Weaver, LAA (.340)
LOWEST $H, AL:
Lackey, LAA (.237)
Beckett, BOS (.253)
Elarton, KC (.259)
Zito, OAK (.261)
Verlander, DET (.262)
NL RA LEADERS:
Webb, ARI (2.91)
Penny, LA (2.91)
Schmidt, SF (3.00)
Johnson, FLA (3.06)
Young, SD (3.30)
NL eRA LEADERS:
Schmidt, SF (3.17)
Martinez, NYN (3.24)
Webb, ARI (3.49)
Young, SD (3.61)
Johnson, FLA (3.62)
What a nice surprise Josh Johnson has been. I think Texas would like to have Chris Young back right about now too (although there are no park factors considered here, and Petco does cut into runs by about 5%).
NL RAR LEADERS:
Webb, ARI (+47)
Schmidt, SF (+42)
Arroyo, CIN (+37)
Penny, LA (+37)
Capuano, MIL (+36)
I guess that makes Webb or Schmidt the Cy Young choice.
NL RA TRAILERS:
Perez, PIT (7.58)
Moehler, FLA (7.34)
Madson, PHI (6.66)
Claussen, CIN (6.55)
Suppan, STL (6.52)
NL eRA TRAILERS:
Moehler, FLA (6.99)
Perez, PIT (6.87)
Madson, PHI (6.85)
Sosa, ATL (6.64)
Herandez, WAS (6.60)
What the heck happened to Oliver Perez? His strikeout rate has dropped now as well to 7.2
NL RAR TRAILERS:
Perez, PIT (-14)
Moehler, FLA (-12)
Hernandez, WAS (-7)
Madson, PHI (-7)
Suppan, STL (-6)
HIGHEST RA/eRA ratio, NL:
Bucholz, HOU (5.43/4.20)
Cain, SF (5.53/4.47)
Martinez, NYN (3.91/3.24)
Olsen, FLA (4.84/4.27)
O’Connor, WAS (4.80/4.24)
LOWEST RA/eRA ratio, NL:
Penny, LA (2.91/3.76)
Oswalt, HOU (3.38/4.19)
Glavine, NYN (3.86/4.70)
Maholm, PIT (5.29/6.41)
Webb, ARI (2.91/3.49)
HIGHEST $H, NL:
Maholm, PIT (.351)
Moehler, FLA (.348)
Pettitte, HOU (.346)
Madson, PHI (.341)
Snell, PIT (.336)

Let’s look at hitters now (200 PA needed to qualify):
AL BA LEADERS:
Mauer, MIN (.378)
Johnson, TOR (.365)
Jeter, NYA (.345)
Suzuki, SEA (.343)
DeRosa, TEX (.332)
AL OBA LEADERS:
Hafner, CLE (.457)
Mauer, MIN (.451)
Ramirez, BOS (.436)
Catalanatto, TOR (.431)
Johnson, TOR (.424)
AL SLG LEADERS:
Thome, CHA (.651)
Hafner, CLE (.650)
Dye, CHA (.646)
Thames, DET (.634)
Ramirez, BOS (.615)
AL RC LEADERS:
Hafner, CLE (79)
Ortiz, BOS (75)
Ramirez, BOS (74)
Thome, CHA (73)
Wells, TOR (69)
AL RG LEADERS:
Hafner, CLE (10.24)
Ramirez, BOS (9.15)
Thome, CHA (9.04)
Mauer, MIN (8.86)
Dye, CHA (8.67)
AL SEC LEADERS:
Giambi, NYA (.585)
Hafner, CLE (.577)
Thome, CHA (.547)
Ramirez, BOS (.540)
Ortiz, BOS (.508)
AL BA TRAILERS:
Anderson, CHA (.192)
Lee, TB (.197)
Reed, SEA (.217)
Sexson, SEA (.218)
Ellis, OAK (.219)
AL OBA TRAILERS:
Reed, SEA (.256)
Hall, TB (.258)
Uribe, CHA (.259)
Berroa, KC (.265)
Ellis, OAK (.271)
I really don’t understand the Hall and Hendrickson for Seo and Navarro trade at all. Sure, Hendrickson is an upgrade over Seo, at least for the present, but you give up a pretty good young catcher and get an older catcher whose never done much. But it makes sense to Brian Sabean and his acolytes, apparently
AL SLG TRAILERS:
Lee, TB (.291)
Ellis, OAK (.311)
Kendall, OAK (.314)
Anderson, CHA (.324)
Ford, MIN (.324)
A first baseman last in the league in slugging is never a good thing. At least Jason Kendall has a homer this year.
AL RG TRAILERS:
Lee, TB (2.60)
Ellis, OAK (2.79)
Anderson, CHA (2.91)
Berroa, KC (2.93)
Reed, SEA (3.01)
AL SEC TRAILERS:
Polanco, DET (.110)
Berroa, KC (.129)
Kendall, OAK (.138)
Loretta, BOS (.142)
Betancourt, SEA (.144)
Now the Neanderthal League:
NL BA LEADERS:
Garciaparra, LA (.358)
Sanchez, PIT (.358)
McCann, ATL (.343)
Holliday, COL (.337)
Lamb, HOU (.337)
NL OBA LEADERS:
Bonds, SF (.460)
Abreu, PHI (.451)
Pujols, STL (.432)
Cabrera, FLA (.428)
Helton, COL (.421)
Neither league’s OBA leader is in the All-Star game.
NL SLG LEADERS:
Pujols, STL (.703)
Berkman, HOU (.607)
Beltran, NYN (.606)
Holliday, COL (.587)
Howard, PHI (.582)
NL RC LEADERS:
Wright, NYN (72)
Pujols, STL (71)
Cabrera, FLA (70)
Berkman, HOU (69)
Bay, PIT (68)
NL RG LEADERS:
Pujols, STL (10.27)
Bonds, SF (8.55)
Garciaparra, LA (8.47)
Berkman, HOU (8.46)
Cabrera, FLA (8.30)
NL SEC LEADERS:
Bonds, SF (.640)
Pujols, STL (.590)
Dunn, CIN (.519)
Ensberg, HOU (.511)
Beltran, NYN (.509)
NL BA TRAILERS:
Lane, HOU (.205)
Barmes, COL (.208)
Guillen, WAS (.211)
Abercrombie, FLA (.221)
Molina, STL (.222)
NL OBA TRAILERS:
Barmes, COL (.234)
Guillen, WAS (.254)
Molina, STL (.256)
Castilla, SD (.259)
Burnitz, PIT (.269)
NL SLG TRAILERS:
Ausmus, HOU (.299)
Taveras, HOU (.308)
Schneider, WAS (.311)
Barmes, COL (.318)
Everett, HOU (.319)
Houston cannot expect to contend again with their sorry offense. Of course Berkman, Lamb, and Ensberg are having pretty good years, but when you have three black holes playing every day, you let that go to waste.
NL RG TRAILERS:
Barmes, COL (2.23)
Molina, STL (2.43)
Castilla, SD (2.57)
Everett, HOU (2.84)
Cedeno, CHN (2.90)
NL SEC TRAILERS:
Cedeno, CHN (.117)
Taveras, HOU (.118)
Eckstein, STL (.122)
Castilla, SD (.126)
Pierre, CHN (.135)
I didn’t include steals in Secondary Average here, so Pierre and Taveras might not be in the bottom five if you include them.

Now let’s look at the top and bottom three players, ranked by PRAR, at each position, for both leagues combined (although I will list the best and worst in each league if they are not among the extreme three).
CATCHERS:
Mauer, MIN (+39)
Martinez, CLE (+27)
Barrett, CHN (+23)
Hall, TB (0)
Ausmus, HOU (-1)
Molina, STL (-5)
Incredibly, A.J. Pierzynski, who is largely reviled, and is sixth among AL catchers in this category, is in the All-Star Game. Martinez’ throwing has been horrible this year, but he is still a great hitter for the position.
FIRST BASE/DH:
Hafner, CLE (+45)
Pujols, STL (+42)
Thome, CHA (+37)
Sexson, SEA (-4)
Everett, SEA (-6)
Lee, TB (-12)
Hafner leads the world in PRAR, and yet he doesn’t get that much respect on a national level. Pronk coming into this year had a career line of 293/388/556 while David Ortiz was 282/366/534. I realize Ortiz is the “clutch God”, is charismatic, and was a member of a world championship team, so I’m not surprised that he is more famous, but I think it is disproportionately so. And I’m not trying to put down Big Papi--he was next on this list at +33. I’d love to have either of them in my lineup. Adrian Gonzalez is last in the NL at +6.
SECOND BASE:
Utley, PHI (+33)
Uggla, FLA (+29)
Hall, MIL (+25)
Kennedy, LAA (+2)
Polanco, DET (+1)
Ellis, OAK (-4)
Perhaps the greatest advantage for the Neanderthals is at second base. You have to go all the way down to seventh on the list to find the AL leader, Brain Roberts, at +15. Aaron Miles at +3 is the worst in the NL.
THIRD BASE:
Cabrera, FLA (+40)
Wright, NYN (+38)
Rolen, STL (+31)
Bell, PHI (+5)
Beltre, SEA (+4)
Boone, CLE (-2)
ARod for all of the grief he gets, leads the AL at +28 (Chipper is ahead of him in addition to the three above). Aaron Boone continues to stink, and while Andy Marte has not had the best season at AAA, it’s time to let the guy play in the majors. It can’t get much worse then it already is.
SHORTSTOP:
Jeter, NYA (+35)
Reyes, NYN (+34)
Tejada, BAL (+31)
Everett, HOU (-1)
Berroa, KC (-2)
Barmes, COL (-7)
Remember the SI article in the 1996 baseball preview about how New York would have the best pair of shortstops in either league with Jeter and Rey Ordonez? They were ten years ahead of their time. Reyes, while his style is still not the kind of baseball I prefer, has been a favorite of mine this year as I used my second round fantasy pick on him, which prompted a comment of “What?” from another league member. I still wouldn’t pick him in the second round for a real team, but he still has time to change that, and he’s a pretty good player at this moment.
CORNER OUTFIELD:
Ramirez, BOS (+40)
Berkman, HOU (+37)
Dye, CHA (+34)
Abreu, PHI (+34)
Holliday, COL (+31)
Bay, PIT (+31)
Francouer, ATL (0)
Markakis, BAL (0)
Burnitz, PIT (-1)
Guillen, WAS (-4)
Ford, MIN (-5)
Abercrombie, FLA (-6)
I didn’t bother splitting them up into left/right, so I listed the top and bottom six. Jeff Francouer has eight walks in 369 at bats. JC Bradbury at Sabernomics has started a tracker to follow Francouer’s quest to make the most outs in a single season. He is simply not a good player, at least not at this point in his development.
CENTER FIELD:
Beltran, NYN (+37)
Wells, TOR (+35)
Matthews, TEX (+28)
Kotsay, OAK (-2)
Taveras, HOU (-4)
Anderson, CHA (-5)
Weren’t the New York fans booing Beltran at the beginning of the year too? Good grief, you’re the best in the league at your position and you get booed. If I had MVP votes, they would go to Hafner and Pujols, although Joe Mauer could make a good case depending on how his defense is (I’m not a big defensive stats maven and I’m not looking it up right now).

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